### Calculate mean absolute deviation

Assignment Help Other Subject
##### Reference no: EM131235424

Assignment

Q1. The monthly sales for Telco Batteries, Inc., were as shown in the excel sheet. Please use 4-month weighted moving average method to forecast the demands from month 5 to month 19. The weight associated to last month's sales is 40%; the weight associated to the sales two months ago is 30%; the weight associated to the sales three months ago is 20%; the weight associated to the sales four months ago is 10%. Once you have the forecasted sales from month 5 to month 19, calculate the following measures of the forecast error.

b. Mean Squared Error (MSE); and

c. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE).

Q2. The AMC theatre in sunset plaza observes the daily tickets sales for the past four weeks. Please see the data in the excel sheet. The manager of the theatre has forecasted that next week's total ticket sale will be 2390. Based on this forecast and the seasonal index method, how many tickets will be sold on each day next week?

3. The excel file has a sheet that contains data for the past 30 weeks of sales for product X. Based on the data, answer the following questions

a. Plot the data. Just by looking at the plot (that is, without doing any calculation), do you think a 3-week simple moving average would be a better forecast, or a 6-week simple moving average? Just by looking at the plot, do you think an exponential smoothing with value of α = 0.2 would be better forecast or would α = 0.6 be better? Explain your reasoning. (Note: do the two comparisons separately; don't compare moving average with exponential smoothing)

b. Apply the four forecasts (3-week and 6-week simple moving average and exponential smoothing with value of α = 0.2 and α = 0.6), and plot the forecasted sales along with the actual sales you plotted in (a). For exponential smoothing, assume the forecast for the first week is 600.

c. For each of the above four forecasts, compute the MAD for forecasting before week 25. In addition, compute the MAD for the last five weeks. Compare those numbers to see if they confirm your answer to part (a).

4. Data on the bus and subway ridership for the summer months in London, England, have been recorded for the past 16 years. See excel file for the data sheet.

a. Please use trend projection method to forecast the ridership (how many) for the summer months in the year 17.

b. Now, the bus and subway ridership for the summer months is believed to be tied heavily to the number of tourists visiting the city. The excel data sheet also provides the data on the number of tourists. Please use linear regression model to forecast the ridership (how many) for the summer months in a year when the estimated number of tourists visiting is 18 millions.

Attachment:- Assignment.rar

#### Letter to deliver to the homes and apartments

You have decided to write a promotional sales letter to deliver to the homes and apartments in the area. Your letter should be attractive and include details that you think

#### Lack of competition- health insurance

Unlike life insurance, health insurance can't be sold across state lines. Why does such an obvious problem, with an obvious solution, still exist?

#### Evaluate the current performance management system

You have just been promoted to manager of your department. Your supervisor has asked that you review the current performance management system measures in place, and make any

#### Serial killer case studies comprised of data-self-concept

Serial Killer case studies are comprised of data that has been compiled and analyzed using eight profiling dimension.Because these eight dimension are standardized,they allow

#### Description of the managerial challenge

Working individually, students will demonstrate additional competency in project, operations, and information systems management by preparing a succinct report that integrat

#### The kinds of empires that dominated much of the world

The kinds of empires that dominated much of the world for thousands of years and usually ruled very culturally diverse populations are no longer possible, though some variatio

#### Favor of a local civic redevelopment project

An opinion poll based on a sample of 750 community residents indicates that 61% are in favor of a local civic redevelopment project. Estimate the level of support throughout

#### Modern transcontinental railroad network possible

Which of the following was not amoung the technological improvements that made the modern transcontinental railroad network possible?