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Risk Analysis & Modelling , Risk Management

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Fire Risk model 1
1. Introduction
The new All-Scotland Fire Authority wishes to maximise the effectiveness of the service it provides to the Public, given the reduced budget it will have for fire-fighting and fire-prevention over the next five – 10 years, at least. Accordingly, you have been commissioned to a Qualitative Risk Analysis of Fire Prevention measures for an un-named town in Scotland
(i) A Quantitative Risk Analysis of Response Times to fires.

You must use the individualised values associated with your name in the data file, Fire_Risk_Appraisal.xlsx available on GCU-Learn and use it to write a report to the Senior Management of the new Authority.





2. Quantitative Model: Fire Prevention [70 marks]
The Authority has a per capita budget to purchase fire prevention measures in an effort to reduce the number of deaths and serious injuries caused by fires. The budget cannot be exceeded, but need not all be spent. The Authority has already conducted a Risk Assessment of the town, and has computed Risk Scores for each person, taking into account their Age, Gender, personal habits, etc. 2 These scores have been mapped into a Risk Category as follows: Risk Scoring Regime
Breakpoint Category
0 Low
10 Low-Medium
40 Medium
80 Medium-High
120 High
150 Dangerously High

1 We are indebted to Senior Fire Officers from Central and Strathclyde Brigades, who have provided both guidance and inspiration for this Assignment.
2 This is the Fire Risk model we looked at earlier in the Trimester. You may want to look at it again to remind yourself how it worked.

3 Note that #3 and #4 are mutually exclusive of each other.
The Authority has five basic fire prevention measures it can provide to a household, each with differing effectiveness and costs:
1. Fire Prevention leaflet: this contains ‘tips’ for reducing fire risk in the home
2. Home Safety Visit: a 30 minute visit to a house to assess the risks and to offer advice on how to improve safety in the house
3. Installation of a Smoke Detector/Alarm 3
4. Installation of Smoke and Carbon Monoxide Detector/Alarms
5. Installation of a Portable Water Sprinkler system



The effectiveness of each measure is dependent, to some extent, on the individual’s attributes, as indicated in the following table: Category FP Leaflet HSV Smoke Detector Smoke/CD Detector PWS
Low Effective Effective Effective Highly Effective Ineffective
Low-Medium Effective Effective Effective Highly Effective Ineffective
Medium Highly Effective Effective Effective Highly Effective Ineffective
Medium-High Highly Effective Highly Effective Highly Effective Highly Effective Ineffective
High Ineffective Ineffective Highly Effective Highly Effective Effective
Dangerously High Ineffective Ineffective Ineffective Ineffective Highly Effective


The task is to construct a model, using only the data (individuals, costs and budget) assigned to you in the file Fire_Risk_Appraisal.xlsx that will determine what measures should be offered (if any) to the individuals in the town, with a view to maximize the total risk scores, while spending within the budget.
Your report on this analysis should explain the general scenario, your approach to solving this particular problem and what you are recommending to management and assessing the extent to which safety in the town will be improved.

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