Explain which of the two strategies is most likely to lead to development.

Empirically, it seems rather evident that export-orientation has been more successful than import-substitution. The major point in putting forth this claim are that export-orientation has led to rapid growth whereas import-substitution has in fact been a dismal failure - resulting in the general abandonment of import-substitution as a main development policy. Though, as there always is in the dismal science, is that various specific policies in export-orientation in fact closely mirror policies executed in import-substitution policies.