Learning Curve in Practice

* Scenario

- A new firm enters chemical processing industry.

* Do they:

1) Produce a low level output and sell at high price?

2) Produce a high level output and sell at low price?

* How would learning curve influence your decision?

* The Empirical Findings

- The study of thirty seven chemical products

- Average cost fell 5.5 percent per year

- For each doubling of plant size, the average production costs fall by 11 percent

- For each doubling of cumulative output, average cost of production falls by 27 percent

* Which is more significant, economies of scale or learning effects?

* Other Empirical Findings

- In semi conductor industry a study of 7 generations of DRAM semiconductors from 1974-1992 found learning rates averaged 20 percent.

- In aircraft industry learning rates are as high as 40percent.

* Applying Learning Curves
1) To determine if it is profitable to enter in the industry.

 2) To determine when profits will occur based on plant size and cumulative output.