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The final and most important part of the methodology is the impulse response functions which will provide the most information with regards to the aim of the project. In order to analyse the variables response to an oil price shock, the VAR has to transform into its Moving Average representation. The moving average representation is necessary to find the impulse response function of the VAR model. In this project I will assess the impulse responses using the typical Cholesky Decomposition. From these responses, future responses of each variable to a shock in oil price can be analysed. Impulse responses display the response of the future values of each variable to a one standard deviation oil price shock, whilst making the assumption that the shock normalises and returns to zero in subsequent periods. Furthermore it is assumed that all other errors are also zero. The underlying thought behind shocking one variable whilst ensuring that the others remain constant is the most effective way of measuring the impact of an oil price shock on other macroeconomic variables. Therefore this section will form the strongest case as to whether natural oil price shocks impact positively or negatively on the key macroeconomic variables in the UK.
Explain about Economys growth rate Economy's growth rate: Long-term economic growth, or tendency growth, is the rate of growth the economy can sustain, ignoring the short-term
In order to estimate aVAR, alag length must be used in the estimation. There are many different criteria which can be used to signal the ideal lag length to use.Asteriou & Hall (20
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The rate of interest in the UK also showed very interesting results, to an impulse shock on oil price. The middle left graph from Fig 4.4 shows the results. Initially, in the short
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