Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Misconceptions of securitization, There are some misconceptions about...

There are some misconceptions about securitization: Poor quality originators end up in securitizing their assets. A bank's best mortgage

Criticize the flexible exchange rate regime, Criticism from the viewpoint o...

Criticism from the viewpoint of the proponents of the flexible exchange rate regime. Economic agents can hedge exchange risk through forward contracts and other methods. They do

Why we measure a project''s risk as the change in the cv, Explain why we me...

Explain why we measure a project's risk as the change in the CV. We compute a project's risk as the change in the coefficient of variation for the reason that this focuses on t

Implications of gordon’s fundamental valuation, Q. Implications of Gordons ...

Q. Implications of Gordons fundamental valuation? Explanation: - The implications of Gordon's fundamental valuation may be as below: (1) While the rate of return of the firm

Operating economics, Q Operating economics A number of operating econo...

Q Operating economics A number of operating economies will be available with the merger of two or more companies. Duplicating facilities in accounting purchasing marketing etc

Calculate average annual return, Q. Calculate Average Annual Return? An...

Q. Calculate Average Annual Return? An investor buys a bond in 1978 maturity in 1980 at Rs.900. It has a maturity value of 10 years and par value of Rs. 1000. It fetches RS.90

Financial control, Internal capital rationing is used by firms for exercisi...

Internal capital rationing is used by firms for exercising financial control. How does a firm achieve this?

Features of a budget, FEATURES OF A BUDGET a.         It is prepared f...

FEATURES OF A BUDGET a.         It is prepared for a specific period. b.         It is expressed in quantity or money or both. c.         It is a statement describing ob

Graphic presentation of organisation of finance function, Q. Graphic Presen...

Q. Graphic Presentation of Organisation of Finance Function? Graphic Presentation of Organisation of Finance Function: - The following chart describes the organization of the f

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd