Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

Why is debt management difficult in less developed countries, Why is debt m...

Why is debt management difficult in Less Developed Countries? One of the biggest challenges facing Less Developed Countries debt management is making sure $ interest payments c

How can trade agreements assist development, How can trade agreements assis...

How can trade agreements assist development? A trade agreement is while two or more countries to by decrease or abolish tariffs, non-trade and quotas barriers which are establ

What are harrod-domar restrictions, What are Harrod-Domar restrictions? ...

What are Harrod-Domar restrictions? Harrod-Domar restrictions: • Non economic social, cultural, political and institutional circumstances are unimportant into growth pro

Supply, abnormal supply curve

abnormal supply curve

Efficiency for the mauritian economy, Question 1: By using appropriate ...

Question 1: By using appropriate models critically analyse the following statement: "Money demand for speculative as well as transactional motive is inver

What is the function of non-government organisations, What is the function ...

What is the function of Non-Government Organisations, within the promotion of development? Advocates argue NGOs (Non-Government Organisations): • Hold DCs accountable for e

Foreign exchange market and arbitrage process, Foreign Exchange Market and ...

Foreign Exchange Market and Arbitrage Process: 1. Suppose that the Brazilian Real is quoted at R 0.9955-1.0076/US$ and the Thai Baht is quoted at B25.2513-3986/US$. What is

What policies can developed to resolve debt problem, What policies can less...

What policies can less developed countries follow to resolve their debt problem? Highly indebted countries can resolve by less developed countries: Seek help by internat

Treatment of capital gains and losses, Capital gains and losses are regar...

Capital gains and losses are regarded as wind falls. Fluctuation in the stock market prices in one of the most common sources of the wind falls. In a progressive society accordin

Economics, Ask question #Minimum 1000words accepted#

Ask question #Minimum 1000words accepted#

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd