Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

Economic growth always benefits an economy, QUESTION a) Explain with th...

QUESTION a) Explain with the use of appropriate techniques how can an increase in investment spills over to other sectors in the economy and what affects the final impact on ec

Production, what factors affect the volume of production in an economy

what factors affect the volume of production in an economy

gnp rises, If nominal GNP enhances at a rate of 10 per cent per year where...

If nominal GNP enhances at a rate of 10 per cent per year whereas the GNP deflator enhances at 8 per cent per year then show how much real GNP rises. Explain?

Do all developing economies have same underlying problems, Do all developin...

Do all developing economies have same underlying problems? Less developed countries are similar but exceptional. The impact of a problem will vary depending upon circumstances

Ppc, rice donation

rice donation

What are the limitations of comparative advantage, What are the limitations...

What are the limitations of comparative advantage? Limitations of comparative advantage: International trade needs wide specialisation. This can have drawbacks as given b

Calculate the beta for corporation, 1.) Calculate the beta for your corpora...

1.) Calculate the beta for your corporation.  First you need to calculate the monthly return for your corporation for the recent 60-month period (use April 2006 through March 2011)

M & E, CHALLEGES FACING BUSINESS ORGNIZATION

CHALLEGES FACING BUSINESS ORGNIZATION

What causes migration, What causes migration? Rural-to-urban migration...

What causes migration? Rural-to-urban migration is a usual LDC experience. Those are migrates within search of better SoL, those are generally younger, less risk adverse and b

What are the factors of evaluating a policy or institution, What are the fa...

What are the factors of evaluating a policy or institution? Factors to consider during evaluating a policy or institution comprise: • Internal and external constraints onto

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd