Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

Economic growth always benefits an economy, QUESTION a) Explain with th...

QUESTION a) Explain with the use of appropriate techniques how can an increase in investment spills over to other sectors in the economy and what affects the final impact on ec

What is Aid, What is aid? Aid is the administered transfer of resource...

What is aid? Aid is the administered transfer of resources by a donor country or international agency or non-government organisation to less developed countries to encourage e

Explain foreign direct investment, Explain foreign direct investment: ...

Explain foreign direct investment: 1.  Identify and briefly explain three costs of foreign direct investment (FDI) for a country such as China (the home country) and two benef

Explain about the term underemployment and unemployment rate, Explain about...

Explain about the term underemployment and unemployment rate. Discouraged employees are non-working people who are able of working although are not actively in search of a job.

Help, Ask quethe monthly revenue of a certain comany is given by R=820p-7^2...

Ask quethe monthly revenue of a certain comany is given by R=820p-7^2p,where p is the price in dollars of the product the company manufacturers. at what price will the revenue be $

How does resource enhancement improve development, How does resource enhanc...

How does resource enhancement improve development? Enhancements in the quantity and quality of resources increases productivity hence incomes. Enhanced management raises outpu

Explain clearly what is meant by "dol"., QUESTION 1 (a) Explain clearly...

QUESTION 1 (a) Explain clearly the various sources of Industrial Law (b) The mutual consent of the contracting parties is required for a contract of employment to be valid, but

How can you find out where to put your management effort, Stakeholders have...

Stakeholders have various interests or ‘stakes’ in a project. How can you find out where to put your management effort? Preferably, all stakeholders will have closely same crit

Explain the effects of a minimum wage, Problem 1: (a) Suppose the gover...

Problem 1: (a) Suppose the government decides to implement a minimum wage to help low-income workers. How will the minimum wage affect the demand for labor and what does this i

Research Methods, A .Develop a researchable topic and prepare a research pr...

A .Develop a researchable topic and prepare a research proposal using the layout outlined below. CAVENDISH UNIVERSITY DISSERTATION PROPOSAL LAYOUT TITLE PAGE CHAPTER ONE: INTRODU

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd