Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

What is the effectiveness of non-government organisations, What is the effe...

What is the effectiveness of Non-Government Organisations, within the promotion of development? Critics argue NGOs (Non-Government Organisations): • Are self-serving and se

What is urbanisation, What is urbanisation? Urbanisation arises while a...

What is urbanisation? Urbanisation arises while an increasing proportion of the population live into cities, suburbs or towns. All cities are attractive to potential migrants s

What is sampling, Sampling and tests of significance are very important too...

Sampling and tests of significance are very important tools in business economics. In fact one cannot do any meaningful marketing research without the requisite knowledge of sampli

What is the lewis model, What is the Lewis Model? The Lewis Model argue...

What is the Lewis Model? The Lewis Model argues economic growth needs structural change into the economy whereby surplus labour within traditional agricultural sector along wit

Explain about the term underemployment and unemployment rate, Explain about...

Explain about the term underemployment and unemployment rate. Discouraged employees are non-working people who are able of working although are not actively in search of a job.

Average amount of debt families, The average amount of debt families have i...

The average amount of debt families have is 2.5 times their annual income with a standard deviation 0.75 times their annual income. How much debt does a family have to have (relati

Balance of payments, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: The record of all transactio...

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: The record of all transactions (trade and financial) of the residents of one country with the rest of the world is Balance of Payments (BoP). The directio

Oligopolistic competition, Oligopolistic Competition: Two rms are com...

Oligopolistic Competition: Two rms are competing for consumers. They simultaneously decide what quantity to produce. Suppose they have identical cost c, zero xed cost and fa

Secondary sector, factors that affect the volume of production in economy

factors that affect the volume of production in economy

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd