Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

Explain the pricing strategies of an oligopoly market, QUESTION (a) One...

QUESTION (a) One of the differences between a monopolistically competitive industry and a perfectly competitive one is that in the former, there is product differentiation. (i)

How can less developed countries economies produced, How can less developed...

How can less developed countries economies produced by developing its primary sector as agriculture? Less developed countries economies cannot grow by developing its primary se

Flexible exchange rate system, Flexible exchange rate system: A countr...

Flexible exchange rate system: A country is linked to other countries through two broad channels:  trade flows andfinancial flows. Trade flows pertain to movement of goods and

Export, Procedure for export under deferred paymet

Procedure for export under deferred paymet

Graphing Taxation., Demonstrate graphically the cost of income taxation of ...

Demonstrate graphically the cost of income taxation of 30% to consumers and producers for an income of $27,908. How does the taxation change if the income was $220,874? How does

Pre and post transactions valuations, Talltree is considering a $12m series...

Talltree is considering a $12m series B investment in Newco for CP with $12m FV or converting to 5m shares of common. The other investors are the founders, who have 10m shares of c

NPV, How do I calculate NPV with benefits and costs?

How do I calculate NPV with benefits and costs?

How does social capital influence development, How does social capital infl...

How does social capital influence development? Problem: Low social capital leads to potential conflicts and high transaction costs which hinder growth. Several LDCs (Less Deve

Does the structure of the population issue, Does the structure of the popul...

Does the structure of the population issue? Dependents into an economy, children as well as old people are assists by the economically active. Dependency ratio uses to measure

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd