Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

RAILWAY ECONONOMIS, EVALUATING THE IMPLICATION OF IMPLIMENTING PRODUCT MIX ...

EVALUATING THE IMPLICATION OF IMPLIMENTING PRODUCT MIX FOR FREIGHT RAILWAYS

Prepare a schedule of budgeted and cash budget, Question: Yamba Home P...

Question: Yamba Home Products is just beginning its fourth quarter, in which peak sales occur. The company has requested a $12,000, 90-day loan from its bank to help meet cash

Calculate the change in advanced package service, Advanced Package Service ...

Advanced Package Service (APS) offers overnight package delivery to business customers.  APS has recently decided to expand its facilities to better satisfy current and projected d

Production, What is the definition of land productivity?

What is the definition of land productivity?

What is universal banking, It commonly refers to the combination of commerc...

It commonly refers to the combination of commercial banking and investment banking. It is a supermarket for both wholesaler n retailer financial services as it offers a huge range

Export, Procedure for export under deferred paymet

Procedure for export under deferred paymet

Calculate the maximum amount , Tri-City Industries is considering two possi...

Tri-City Industries is considering two possible capital projects. Project A requires an initial investment of $240,000 and provides cash flows before tax of $120,000 in year one, $

Determine the rate of labour productivity growth, 1) Between mid 2008 and m...

1) Between mid 2008 and mid 2009 measured RGDP in the economy fell by 3.8% as the US economy sank into a recession. Over that same time period total employment in terms of hours wo

Determine the critical path, S M Construction has been awarded a contract t...

S M Construction has been awarded a contract to build a new manufacturing plant just outside Cardiff. The activity on arrow table below gives data on the activities involved in the

What are the implications of environment in economic growth, What are the i...

What are the implications of Environment in Economic Growth? Implications of Environment in Economic Growth: Only government can suppose liability for protecting natural res

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd