Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

Terms of trade, Difference between gross barter and net barter terms

Difference between gross barter and net barter terms

Export, Procedure for export under deferred paymet

Procedure for export under deferred paymet

Asking, B. Complete the following table

B. Complete the following table

Production possiblities curve, 1. Imagine that two countries, Richland and ...

1. Imagine that two countries, Richland and Poorland can produce just two goods, computers and coal. Assume that for a given amount of land and capital, the output of these two pro

Game Theory, Usage of Game Theory in Managerial decision

Usage of Game Theory in Managerial decision

What is market failure and why does it occur in an economy, QUESTION (a...

QUESTION (a) Explain the relationship between scarcity, choice and opportunity cost. (b) What is market failure and why does it occur in an economy? (c) Differentiate, us

What are capacity building policies, What are capacity building policies? ...

What are capacity building policies? Capacity building policies: Capacity building is the development and improvement of institutions. And Capacity building policies as

Secondary sector, factors that affect the volume of production in economy

factors that affect the volume of production in economy

Healthcare licensure, Why are many economists opposed to licensure of medic...

Why are many economists opposed to licensure of medical facilities and personnel?

Sports Economics , I am given that demand formula P=150-3Q, am told I only ...

I am given that demand formula P=150-3Q, am told I only have 40 tickets to sell and that the MC=0 and I am suppose to figured out how many tickets to sell to maximize total welfare

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd