Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

What are economic systems, What are economic systems? An economic syst...

What are economic systems? An economic system is the system of organisations utilized by a society to solve the economic difficulty of what how and for whom to make. There are

Total outlay method, total outlay method as a measure of elasticity with ap...

total outlay method as a measure of elasticity with application

Why does economic development engage structural change, Why does economic d...

Why does economic development engage structural change? The process of development needs structural change. Usually economies develop by moving resources through agricultural

What is sampling, Sampling and tests of significance are very important too...

Sampling and tests of significance are very important tools in business economics. In fact one cannot do any meaningful marketing research without the requisite knowledge of sampli

Explain the concept price discrimination, QUESTION 1 (a) Explain the co...

QUESTION 1 (a) Explain the concept price discrimination? (b) Discuss the views that price discrimination always operates in the public interest. QUESTION 2 (a) Descr

How does economic system influence the development process, How does econom...

How does economic system influence the development process? The development experience of free market or capitalist and command as socialist/communist countries is extremely d

Why is the growth rate and significant for development, Why is the growth r...

Why is the growth rate and significant for development? The rate of economic development is the percentage increase within real GDP over twelve months. • The higher rate of

Secondary sector, factors that affect the volume of production in economy

factors that affect the volume of production in economy

Create the scatter graph, Create the scatter graph of the monthly return on...

Create the scatter graph of the monthly return on your corporation (on the vertical axis) versus the monthly return on the S&P 500 (on the horizontal axis)--so there should be 60 d

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd