Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

How can trade agreements assist development, How can trade agreements assis...

How can trade agreements assist development? A trade agreement is while two or more countries to by decrease or abolish tariffs, non-trade and quotas barriers which are establ

What is dual economy and development in an economy, What is dual economy an...

What is dual economy and development in an economy? Development in an economy: Differentiated or uneven development arises while the benefits of growth are not shared ev

What are the predictions of lewis, What are the predictions of Lewis? ...

What are the predictions of Lewis? For Lewis, Harrod Domar is right to emphasise the task of savings and investment although structural change and a new industrial sector are

Diseconomies of scale, explain four major managerial factors that affect di...

explain four major managerial factors that affect diseconomies of scale

Variable input, What is the rational for the optimal use of a variable inpu...

What is the rational for the optimal use of a variable input?

Original to the new equilibrium, ITunes is rapidly dominating the global ma...

ITunes is rapidly dominating the global market for music sale. Assume that the download  price for Dance artist Calvin Harris's single "Feel So Close" is $1.19 and the number of  d

The causes and persistence of inflation, QUESTION (a) Analyse the activ...

QUESTION (a) Analyse the activist and non-activist policy makers' choice between implementing a policy rule or a discretionary monetary policy. (b) Explain why the policy ru

General agreement on tariffs and trade (gatt), General Agreement on T ...

General Agreement on T arif fs and Trade (GATT) A multilateral treaty, the basic goals of which are: (1) to liberalize and promote world trade via multilatera

Flexible exchange rate system, Flexible exchange rate system: A countr...

Flexible exchange rate system: A country is linked to other countries through two broad channels:  trade flows andfinancial flows. Trade flows pertain to movement of goods and

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd