Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

Demand, state the demand theory.

state the demand theory.

The garcia company''s bonds , The Garcia Company's bonds have a face value ...

The Garcia Company's bonds have a face value of $1,000, will mature in ten years, and carry a coupon rate of 16 percent. Suppose interest payments are made semi-yearly. a. Verif

What does rostow predict, What does Rostow predict? For Rostow: ...

What does Rostow predict? For Rostow: • Savings and capital accumulation (formation) are central to the procedure of growth therefore development • The solution to de

Determine the total price effect , An agent has a utility function over goo...

An agent has a utility function over goods 1 and 2 of the form U = x c 1 x d 2 where c is your 1- digit number and d is your minimum number. The agent's income is equal to you

Describe average in the class so far, On the first exam your score was a 96...

On the first exam your score was a 96%, on the second it was an 89%, and on the third test it was a 79%. The first exam is worth 10% of your grade, the second is worth 19% of your

Differentiate between absolute and relative poverty, QUESTION (a) Defin...

QUESTION (a) Define a public good and discuss how free riding might be a problem in the provision of a public good. (b) What is the rationale for government intervention in

Problem of agricultural price instability in countries, Is agricultural pri...

Is agricultural price instability a problem for Less Developed Countries? Problem of agricultural price instability for LDCs: a. Several Less Developed Countries have a com

What is rostowís model, What is Rostowís model? Rostowís Stages of Gro...

What is Rostowís model? Rostowís Stages of Growth model argues to attain modernity all countries pass through similar stages of development as explained as follows: a. Sta

Economic theories applied in business economics, Explain how the economic t...

Explain how the economic theories applied in business economics

What is structural change, What is structural change? Structural chan...

What is structural change? Structural change: Structural change arises while the associate share of GDP and employment accounted for through the primary, secondary and te

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd