Forecasting evolution techniques, Business Economics

Assignment Help:

Following are the number of victories for the Blue Sox and the hotel occupancy rate for the past eight years.  You have been asked to test three forecasting methods to see which method provides a better forecast for the Number of Blue Sox wins.

Year

Number of Blue Sox Wins

Occupancy Rate

1

70

78%

2

67

83

3

75

86

4

87

85

5

87

89

6

91

92

7

89

91

8

85

94

 

For the following, calculate all forecasts to one decimal place (example, 93.2%)

You are asked to forecast the Number of Blue Sox Wins for Year 9.  Although you believe there might be a linear regression relationship, your boss has told you to only consider the following three forecasting methods:

  • 2-period moving average,
  • 3-period weighted moving average, unfortunately, you spilled coffee on the paper with the weights for each period. You can tell that the weights for the most recent and the third most recent period are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively. The weight for the second most recent period would be consistent with the weighted moving average method we have studied in class.
  • exponential smoothing with α = 0.3 and the forecast for Year 3 for Number of Blue Sox Wins is 70.0.

a) What is the forecast from each of these three methods for Year 9?

b)  Using one of the forecast evaluation techniques that we have used as part of the homework assignment for this topic and using the forecasts for Years 4 through 8, which forecasting method do you recommend using for preparing your forecast for Year 9?  Why?

c)  Based on your analysis in b), would you recommend using the forecasting method and the resulting forecast that you selected in b)?  Identify the key factors that need to be considered in answering this question.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting evolution techniques

Fiscal and monitory olicy, Assess the impact of fiscal and monetory policy ...

Assess the impact of fiscal and monetory policy on business organisations and their activities

What is foreign debt management, What is Foreign Debt Management? Debt...

What is Foreign Debt Management? Debt management considers as to the arrangements made to: • Protected the suitable amount of borrowing to deliver growth • Ignore excess

Macroeconomics, you are appointed secretary of the treasury of recently ind...

you are appointed secretary of the treasury of recently indepent country called rugaria

Development through trade - lower income countries, Development Strategies ...

Development Strategies are explained as follows: Keeping the reasons for the persistent poverty in the LICs aside, there are three broad progress strategies which have been ado

Is low savings a problem, Is low savings a problem? Countries along wi...

Is low savings a problem? Countries along with low savings are caught into the vicious circle of poverty: there low savings, implies low investment low productivity therefore

What are institutions, What are institutions? Institutions are formal ...

What are institutions? Institutions are formal organisations as like: • Government : the group of some people and institutions who control and manage a country Civic socie

Explain the concept price discrimination, QUESTION 1 (a) Explain the co...

QUESTION 1 (a) Explain the concept price discrimination? (b) Discuss the views that price discrimination always operates in the public interest. QUESTION 2 (a) Descr

Business cycle, Analyse the effect of contraction phase to the vulnerable s...

Analyse the effect of contraction phase to the vulnerable society

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd