Forecasting, Operation Management

Assignment Help:
The cafeteria supervisor at CarWash is interested in developing a forecast model for the number of meals to be prepared each day. The following daily data from the cafeteria’s register were collected. Using the data, the supervisor had already computed forecast values using a regression model. However, s/he would like to assess the regression model’s accuracy to a base model called “exponential smoothing.”

WORKING AREA FOR THE PROBLEM
Exponential Regression
Day Meals Forecast Error Forecast Error
1 37 36.94
2 40 38.66
3 41 40.38
4 37 42.11
5 45 43.83
6 50 45.55
7 43 47.28
8 47 49.00
9 56 50.73
10 52 52.45
11 55 54.17
12 54 55.90

a) Your job is to compute forecasts using exponential smoothing technique with alpha of 0.3. Assume the initial forecast for day 1is 37. Show details for at least three calculations


b) Is the regression model a better fit to the data? Explain why. Use CFE and MAD as accuracy measurements.


c) Regardless of your decision in part (b), assume now that CarWash had been using the regression model in forecasting. What would you conclude about its performance? Show details for updated MAD calculations, at least for three periods. Use action limits that correspond to 3s control limits, and plot the corresponding tracking signal values. (HINT: 1sigma = 1.25 MAD, action limit is plus and minus and counts for how many MAD we have in specified number of sigma.)

Related Discussions:- Forecasting

A computerised payroll package, A computerised payroll package is an exampl...

A computerised payroll package is an example of a   Data processing system

Explain different forecasting techniques, An analyst must decide between tw...

An analyst must decide between two different forecasting techniques for weekly sales of roller blades: a linear trend equation and the naive approach. The linear trend equation is

Explain simple to state and very difficult to execute, The Assignment is at...

The Assignment is at the same time very simple to state and very difficult to execute. It is designed to allow you to use all the tools of strategy and analysis that you have learn

Explain a typical self-managing team is comprised of, Need these questions ...

Need these questions answered; Have to do a paper on the answers. 1. XYZ, Inc. is making decisions and taking actions with regard to pricing, promotion, and product design of th

Explain labour vs employment arbitrator, Use this for questions 7 and 8: Yo...

Use this for questions 7 and 8: Your Company terminated an employee for stealing a ladder. The employee filed a grievance with the union. The union argues that the employee had ver

Explain unethical for advertisers to pitch products, Do you feel it's uneth...

Do you feel it's unethical for advertisers to pitch products to patients and students in this fashion? why?

What is the relationship among companies and profit motives, What is the re...

What is the relationship between companies, profit motives, competition and private property?

Is work measurement used in organisation - process design, Is work measurem...

Is work measurement used in Organisation - Process Design Is work measurement used in your own organisation? If not, then give thought to how: alternative methods are compared

Describe why variable pay-for-performance plans, Discuss why variable pay-f...

Discuss why variable pay-for-performance plans have become popular and what elements are needed to make them successful.

Explain various types of media that attracted your attention, List five adv...

List five advertisements from various types of media that attracted your attention. Discuss the characteristics that determined your selection

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd