Forecasting, Operation Management

Assignment Help:
The cafeteria supervisor at CarWash is interested in developing a forecast model for the number of meals to be prepared each day. The following daily data from the cafeteria’s register were collected. Using the data, the supervisor had already computed forecast values using a regression model. However, s/he would like to assess the regression model’s accuracy to a base model called “exponential smoothing.”

WORKING AREA FOR THE PROBLEM
Exponential Regression
Day Meals Forecast Error Forecast Error
1 37 36.94
2 40 38.66
3 41 40.38
4 37 42.11
5 45 43.83
6 50 45.55
7 43 47.28
8 47 49.00
9 56 50.73
10 52 52.45
11 55 54.17
12 54 55.90

a) Your job is to compute forecasts using exponential smoothing technique with alpha of 0.3. Assume the initial forecast for day 1is 37. Show details for at least three calculations


b) Is the regression model a better fit to the data? Explain why. Use CFE and MAD as accuracy measurements.


c) Regardless of your decision in part (b), assume now that CarWash had been using the regression model in forecasting. What would you conclude about its performance? Show details for updated MAD calculations, at least for three periods. Use action limits that correspond to 3s control limits, and plot the corresponding tracking signal values. (HINT: 1sigma = 1.25 MAD, action limit is plus and minus and counts for how many MAD we have in specified number of sigma.)

Related Discussions:- Forecasting

How supply chain change works, An online retailer of a single product has f...

An online retailer of a single product has four major markets in the four "corners" (North-East, South-East, North-West and South-West) of a country. Assume that daily demand in ea

ASK, If you were the professor and you knew what was going through Vincent?...

If you were the professor and you knew what was going through Vincent?s mind, what would you say to Vincent?

Explain what will be the percent increase or decrease, Refer to problems 1....

Refer to problems 1.13 and 1.14. If Charles lackey's utility costs remain constant at $500 per month, labour at $8 per hour, and cost of ingredients at $0.35 per loaf, but Charles

Describe the mission- vision- values- and goals, The formal strategic plann...

The formal strategic planning process has five main steps. We are going to analyze at the first step involving corporate mission, vision, values and goals in the context of the com

How is the supply chain cake industry by applying stages, How is the supply...

How is the supply chain cake industry by applying stages? The supply chain cake industry by applying stages as by given factors: • Farmer as like producer of commodities as

Explain organizational structure of your ideal work location, Tell me what ...

Tell me what the organizational structure of your (Ideal) work location would look like, using the terminology of this chapter 17. Use terms like mechanistic, organic, open, closed

Explain should wang take the quantity discount, Wang Distributors has an an...

Wang Distributors has an annual demand for an airport metal detector of 1,400 units. The cost of a typical detector to Wang is $400. Carrying cost is estimated to be 20% of the uni

Explain operations applications are least prominent, Operations application...

Operations applications are least prominent for distributors, wholesales, manufacturers or retailers?

Describe an issue involving mortgage foreclosures, Discusses an issue invol...

Discusses an issue involving mortgage foreclosures in your state and write a summary

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd