This problem set consists of three problems and a short essay.  Each problem is worth 7 points, the essay is worth 4 points for a total of 25 points.

1.  What are the chances that tensions between a democratic (US) and autocratic (Iran) country will escalate to war?

Initial probabilities based on the historical record:

Wars between democracies and autocracies: .3

No wars between democracies and autocracies:  .7

A panel of experts suggested the following symptoms and probabilities:

                                          Support war                Against war     Revised probabilities

                                                    For war    Against war

1.   negotiation progress                .2                     .7                    

2.   military preparations               .7                     .2

3.    nuclear development              .6                     .3

4.   government reforms                .3                     .7

5.   support from allies                  .6                     .4

a)  What are the revised probabilities for each of these symptoms?

b)  What are the joint effects of negotiation progress and nuclear development on the chances of going to war? 

c)  What do you conclude from these analyses about the probability of war between these countries?