Estimate the values of the dependent variable, Applied Statistics

Assignment Help:

1. Suppose you are estimating the imports (from both the U.S. mainland and foreign countries) of fuels and petroleum products in Hawaii (the dependent variable). The values of the dependent variable from 1958 to 2008 are provided in the attached EXCEL file. According to economic theory, imports are affected by total personal income or disposable personal income. In addition, since Hawaii's energy consumption is mainly rely on imported crude oil, the prices of crude oil should also affect the values of imported fuels and petroleum products. The historical data of some potential independent variables (some are relevant, some are irrelevant) from 1958 to 2008 are also provided in the EXCEL file. Based on these data, please do the following:

a. Develop a linear or log-linear (double-log or convert both the DV and the IVs into LN(Y) and LN(X1), LN(X2)...) regression model to estimate the dependent variable based on the data provided in the EXCEL file. Select the independent variables (only include the relevant variables) and the forms (linear or log-linear). [Hint: you should try alternative combinations of independent variables and the regression model with highest Adjusted R Squared Value and all significant independent variables (the P-values of the independent variables should be less than 0.1) should be selected as the best model.] Run the regression models using data from 1958 to 2008.

b. Estimate the values of the dependent variable from 2006 to 2008 using your regression models (both linear and log-linear) and the values of the independent variables provided in the EXCEL file.

c. Calculate the forecasting errors from 2006-2008 based on the mean of absolute errors (MAE) [also called mean absolute deviation or MAD]. The MAE is calculated as follows: first calculate the forecast errors (the actual value of the dependent variable minus the forecasted values of the dependent variable) in each year (2006-2008), and then calculated the average values of the absolute values of the errors. Based on the MAE, which model do you recommend?

d. Run a regression using crude oil price as the only independent variable. Assuming crude oil price in 2009 and 2010 will be $70/BBL and $80/BBL, respectively, forecast the imports of fuels and petroleum products in Hawaii in 2009 and 2010.


Related Discussions:- Estimate the values of the dependent variable

How many possible latin square designs are there, In an agricultural experi...

In an agricultural experiment, we wish to compare the yields of three different varieties of wheat. Call these varieties A, B and C. We have a ?eld that has been marked into a 3 *

Perform a one-way anova, The Tastee Bakery Company supplies a bakery produc...

The Tastee Bakery Company supplies a bakery product to many supermarkets in a metropolitan area. The company wishes to study the effect of shelf display height employed by the supe

Discriminant analysis, Discriminant analysis (DA) helps to determine which ...

Discriminant analysis (DA) helps to determine which variables discriminate between two or more naturally occurring groups. Mathematically equivalent to MANOVA, it ' is extensively

Test for equality of two means, Let X 1  and X 2  be two independent po...

Let X 1  and X 2  be two independent populations with population means μ 1  and  μ 2  respectively. Two samples are taken, one from each population, of sizes n 1  and n 2  re

Techniques, Q. 1 a) Describe the important quantitative techniques used in ...

Q. 1 a) Describe the important quantitative techniques used in public system management. (10) b) Do you think the day will come when all decisions are made with the assistance of

Find probability of remaining paint free - ball duel, In a three-cornered p...

In a three-cornered paint ball duel, A, B, and C successively take shots at each other until only one of them remains paint free. Once hit, a player is out of the game and gets no

Coefficient of variation, Coefficient of Variation The standard dev...

Coefficient of Variation The standard deviation discussed above is an absolute measure of dispersion. The corresponding relative measure is known as the coefficient of vari

Find the optimal order quantity, The Maju Supermarket stocks Munchies Cerea...

The Maju Supermarket stocks Munchies Cereal. Demand for Munchies is 4,000 boxes per year and the super market is open throughout the year. Each box costs $4 and it costs the store

Sampling, Sampling A  Population  is a collection of all the data point...

Sampling A  Population  is a collection of all the data points being studied. For example, if we are studying the annual incomes of all the people in India, then the population

Calculate the maximum weight of the engine, Determine the maximum weight in...

Determine the maximum weight in kN to one decimal point (1 DP) of the engine that can be supported without exceeding the tension given in  Parameter 1 (P1) in chain AB or 1.1 x P1

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd