Effect on unemployment, Macroeconomics

Assignment Help:

From the lower left graph of Fig. it can be seen that there is a time lag associated with an oil price shock and its subsequent effect on unemployment. The results show that for the following year there is no real diversion from the trend and therefore in the short term, unemployment is not significantly effected by an oil price shock. However throughout the medium term and into the long term the unemployment rate is shown to be up to 0.5% higher as a result of the oil price shock. The trend does not stabilise throughout the five year period and therefore it can be drawn that from an oil price shock there is a significant lasting effect on the unemployment rate in the UK.

Finally from the top right graph from Fig. exchange rates seem to follow economic theory. Mankiw (2010) explains that a reduction in the net exports of an economy will result in a depreciation of that economy's exchange rate. Whilst the graph shows that the exchange rates are initially above the normal level following an oil price shock, towards the end of the short term, throughout the medium term and into the long term the real exchange rate has depreciated by two basis points and does not revert back to the original trend throughout the period.

In summary, oil price shocks do draw out great responses from three of the five macroeconomic indicators tested. GDP, inflation and interest rates were all proven to be Granger caused by oil prices indicating that there is a significant relationship between them. In this paper, the results are negative for UK economic performance. The Cholesky impulse response functions show long periods of economic recession and fluctuating levels of inflation for the following four to five years post oil shock. In addition to this, unemployment and exchange rates are also both negatively impacted by a shock in oil prices. Like interest rates, these impacts appear long lasting and do not revert back to their previous trend throughout the five year period. Therefore following a shock in oil prices this model shows that the overall economic performance of the UK will suffer greatly throughout the short and medium term, and will stabilise only in the long term although the economy may be left with a high level of long term unemployment.


Related Discussions:- Effect on unemployment

Aggregate demand in the cross model, Aggregate demand in the cross model ...

Aggregate demand in the cross model Because C and Im depends positively on Y while G, I and X are exogenous, aggregate demand Y D will depend positively on Y:  Y D (Y) = C(

Describe the economic justification for free trade policies, Some manufactu...

Some manufacturing and agricultural products produced in the Midwest are exported to overseas markets.  US consumers and businesses also purchase many products produced outside the

Trade cycle, discus the various measures that may be taken by a firm to cou...

discus the various measures that may be taken by a firm to counteract the evil effect of a trade cycle

Help, i want an answer for my q Question 3 (5 marks) Most studies of firm...

i want an answer for my q Question 3 (5 marks) Most studies of firms’ long run costs have found that average costs decline as firms produce increasingly larger output levels (eco

Impact will high and variable rates of inflation, What impact will high and...

What impact will high and variable rates of inflation have on the economy? How will they influence the risk accompanying long-term contracts and related business decisions?

Describe about capital, Q. Describe about Capital? By capital we charac...

Q. Describe about Capital? By capital we characteristically mean manufactured goods which are used to produce other services and goods though aren't used up in the production p

Trade, What is the difference between heckscher_olin theory and comparative...

What is the difference between heckscher_olin theory and comparative theory

Describe utility function, Suppose that Mr. Chauncey Gardener consumes two ...

Suppose that Mr. Chauncey Gardener consumes two goods, X 1 and X 2 .His preferences can be described by the following utility function: U = X 1 0.5 X 2 0.5 He

Illustrate an example of consumer price index, Illustrate an example of Con...

Illustrate an example of Consumer Price Index For instance, if we spend twice as much on apples as on pears, apples would have twice the weight in basket. The precise details o

Fiscal policy have occurred, What were the key provisions of the economic s...

What were the key provisions of the economic stimulus bill passed by congress in February 2008? What further changes in fiscal policy have occurred since this time?

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd