Effect on unemployment, Macroeconomics

Assignment Help:

From the lower left graph of Fig. it can be seen that there is a time lag associated with an oil price shock and its subsequent effect on unemployment. The results show that for the following year there is no real diversion from the trend and therefore in the short term, unemployment is not significantly effected by an oil price shock. However throughout the medium term and into the long term the unemployment rate is shown to be up to 0.5% higher as a result of the oil price shock. The trend does not stabilise throughout the five year period and therefore it can be drawn that from an oil price shock there is a significant lasting effect on the unemployment rate in the UK.

Finally from the top right graph from Fig. exchange rates seem to follow economic theory. Mankiw (2010) explains that a reduction in the net exports of an economy will result in a depreciation of that economy's exchange rate. Whilst the graph shows that the exchange rates are initially above the normal level following an oil price shock, towards the end of the short term, throughout the medium term and into the long term the real exchange rate has depreciated by two basis points and does not revert back to the original trend throughout the period.

In summary, oil price shocks do draw out great responses from three of the five macroeconomic indicators tested. GDP, inflation and interest rates were all proven to be Granger caused by oil prices indicating that there is a significant relationship between them. In this paper, the results are negative for UK economic performance. The Cholesky impulse response functions show long periods of economic recession and fluctuating levels of inflation for the following four to five years post oil shock. In addition to this, unemployment and exchange rates are also both negatively impacted by a shock in oil prices. Like interest rates, these impacts appear long lasting and do not revert back to their previous trend throughout the five year period. Therefore following a shock in oil prices this model shows that the overall economic performance of the UK will suffer greatly throughout the short and medium term, and will stabilise only in the long term although the economy may be left with a high level of long term unemployment.


Related Discussions:- Effect on unemployment

Determine the daily amount and ipa, A brewery produces two kinds of beer, s...

A brewery produces two kinds of beer, stout and IPA . Each batch of stout sells for $60 per unit while each batch of IPA sells for $108. Both products require malt, hops, barley, f

Outline each approach as positives and negatives, In a group environment, s...

In a group environment, should leaders be assigned at the beginning of a project or should leaders emerge as the group is working on the project? Outline the positives and negative

Permanent Income, 5. In this question you should assume that the Marginal P...

5. In this question you should assume that the Marginal Propensity to Consume out of permanent income is one [i.e., no bequest motive + perfect consumption smoothing: c1, = c2 = c

Show the example on multiplier effect, Q. Show the example on multiplier ef...

Q. Show the example on multiplier effect? Emma makes a deposit:         Emma has 1,000 in her mattress and decides to deposit it in K-bank. Deposit won't affect the money

Real wage, what wil hapen to the real wage if the nominal wages and prices ...

what wil hapen to the real wage if the nominal wages and prices rise at the same rate per year?

Find out the true statement, Which one of the following statements is corre...

Which one of the following statements is correct? A. Most production possibilities curves illustrate decreasing marginal opportunity costs. B. Relative scarcity is no longer

Liberalisation and trends in fdi, Foreign Direct Investment and Development...

Foreign Direct Investment and Development: In neo-classical economic theory, FDI involves  the movement of capital from capital abundant  to capital scarce host countries. Mun

Introduction to demand analysis, INTRODUCTION TO DEMAND ANALYSIS: It i...

INTRODUCTION TO DEMAND ANALYSIS: It is generally seen that market demand curve is downward sloping. Market demand curve (or sometimes called Aggregate demand curve) is nothing

Fiscal restraint is required, If the AD excess is $300 billion and the MPC ...

If the AD excess is $300 billion and the MPC is 0.8 how much fiscal restraint is required? What does the "debt held by the public" mean?

U.s. corporations and workers, What do you presume had happened to get the ...

What do you presume had happened to get the U.S. corporations and workers to take their eyes off of their own economic interest? It seems the "carrot" of cheaper prices were dangle

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd