Deriving 6-month forward rates, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

Using details from table 8, let us compute the 6-month forward rate. Simple arbitrage principle, like the one used to compute the spot rates are used in this process.

For example, let us consider an investor who has 1-year investment horizon and has two alternatives, (i) to buy a 1-year T-bill or (ii) to buy a 6-month T-bill; and when it matures after six months to buy one more 6-month T-bill. If both investments have the same cash flows and carry the same risk, then they will have same value. The investor will be indifferent towards the two alternatives if both of them produce same returns in the 1-year investment horizon. But, to compare both the options, the investor needs to know the forward rate on the 6-month Treasury bill to calculate the yield available on a 6-month treasury bill that will be purchased six months from now. Using the 6-month and 1-year Treasury bill spot rate, the six month forward rate on a 6-month treasury bill can be equated.

Let us now see how to determine the forward rate. Assume that an investor purchases a six month T-bill for $X. The value of the investment at the end of six months would be:

         X (1 + y1)

Where,

         y1 = One-half the Bond-Equivalent Yield (BEY) of the theoretical
            6-month spot rate.

Let us say f represents one-half the forward rate on a 6-month treasury bill available six months from now. The future returns that the investor would be receiving on his investment one year from now if he reinvests his investment by purchasing a six month treasury bill at the end of first six months, would be:

         X (1 + y1) (1 + f)

If we consider the alternative investment in 1-year T-bill and we assume that y2 represents one-half the BEY of the theoretical 1-year spot rate, then the total value of the investment at the end of one year would be:

         X (1 + y2)2

We know that the investor will be indifferent towards the two alternatives if he receives the same return. We can represent it with the help of following equations,

         X (1 + y1) (1 + f) = X (1 + y2)2

Solving for f,

          1639_6 month forward rate.png         

Now using the theoretical spot rates given in table 8, the 6-month and the 1-year
T-bill spot rate would be:

6-month bill spot rate = 0.0400, so y1 = $1.0200.

1-year bill spot rate = 0.0420, so y2 = $0.0210.

Substituting the values in equation (1) we get:

         2480_6 month forward rate1.png

So, the six month forward rate six months form now will be 4.4% (2.2% x 2) BEY. Now let us verify the values determined.  If $X is invested in the 6-month T-Bill at 2% and the proceeds are then reinvested for six months at the 6-month forward rate of 2.2% then the total return form this option would be,

         X(1.0200) x (1.0220) = 1.04244X

Now, if we invest the same amount i.e., $X in 1-year T-bill at one half the
1-year rate, 1.02105%, then return from this option would be,

         X (1.0210)2 = 1.04244 X

In a similar manner, 6 month forward rate beginning at any time period in the future can be calculated.  The notation we use to indicate 6-month forward rates is 1fm. In this, sub script 1 represents a 1-period (6-month) rate and subscript m represents the period beginning m period form now. When m is zero, then it represents current rate. Therefore, the first six months forward (1fm) rate is simply the current six month forward rate (y1).  The formula to determine a six month forward rate is:

         2438_6 month forward rate2.png


Related Discussions:- Deriving 6-month forward rates

Operating cycle, discuss the applicability of an operating cycle to poultry...

discuss the applicability of an operating cycle to poultry business in uganda.

Operating cycle, discuss the applicability of operating cycle in poultry in...

discuss the applicability of operating cycle in poultry industry[consider broilers]

Net present Value, Given below are the cash flows of a project. Find out th...

Given below are the cash flows of a project. Find out the net present value of the project. Cost of capital is 18% and initial investment is Rs. 2,00,000. Year Cash Flows (lakhs)

Structure and participation of hedge funds, Structure and Participation of ...

Structure and Participation of Hedge Funds: The typical structure for a Hedge Fund is to facilitate the tax concerns of investors and fund managers. Basically, there are two or

State the types of integration, State the Types of integration ...

State the Types of integration Types of integration Horizontal Target company has same operations, and is in the same industry

Swing traders, Swing Traders Swing trading is more or less similar to d...

Swing Traders Swing trading is more or less similar to day trading except that swing traders will normally have a longer holding period during a working day. Swing traders also

Cash forecasting and budget, Cash Forecasting and Budget: It is used t...

Cash Forecasting and Budget: It is used to get an idea of what a cash forecasted budget any might expect to earn in a fiscal year. You take last year's expenses, increased by

Case study, Suggestion regarding Credit limit. Should it be approved or not...

Suggestion regarding Credit limit. Should it be approved or not, what should be the amount of credit limit that electronics give to Booth Plastics.

What are the market conditions of cost of capital, What are the Market cond...

What are the Market conditions of cost of capital Security may not be readily marketable when investor wants to sell; or even if a continuous demand for security does exist, p

Define accumulated depreciation, What is accumulated depreciation? Depr...

What is accumulated depreciation? Depreciation is the allocation of an initial cost over time of asset. Whereas the term accumulated depreciation is the total of all the deprec

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd