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demand forecasting, Supply Chain Management

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As1. Ms. Winnie Lin’s company sells computers. Monthly sales for a six-month period are
as follows:
MONTH SALES
Jan 18,000
Feb 22,000
Mar 16,000
Apr 18,000
May 20,000
Jun 24,000
a. Plot the monthly data on a sheet of graph paper.
b. Compute the sales forecast for July using the following approaches: (1) a four-month
moving average; (2) a weighted three-month moving average using .50 for June, .30
for May and .20 for April; (3) a linear trend equation (4) exponential smoothing
with a (smoothing constant) equal to .40, assuming a February forecast of 18,000
c. Which method do you think is the least appropriate? Why?

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