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Sales of vegetable dehydrators at Bud Banis' discount department store in St. Louis over the past year are shown below. Management prepared a forecast using a combination of exponential smoothing and its collective judgment for the upcoming four months (March, April, May, and June of 2010).
Month 2009-2010 Unit Sales Forecast Managements Forecast
July 100August 93September 96October 110November 124December 119January 92February 83March 101 120April 96 114May 89 110June 108 108
(a) Compute MAPE for management's technique
(b) Do management's results outperform (ex have smaller MAPE than) a naive forecast?
(c) Which forecast do you recommend, based on lower forecast error?
how performance cycle variance can be controlled?
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