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From Tables 3A to 3F in the Appendix the results from VAR/Block Exogeneity Granger Causality Test are that the oil price variable does Granger cause both Inflation and interest rates, at the 95% level of significance (p<0.05). These results show that there is interaction between oil prices against inflation and interest rates. Oil prices help to predict inflation and interest rates at this level.
However, to enhance the understanding and improve the accuracy of the results, I performed pairwise Granger Causality tests, displayed in Table 4.3. This tests the causality for each pair of variables rather than the VAR as a whole. The results are similar to the VAR Granger test; however the pairwise test shows that at the 95% significance level, Oil does Granger cause GDP, in addition to interest rates and inflation.
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