What is wrong with this line of reasoning

Reference no: EM131183292

The release of two out of three prisoners has been announced. but their identity is kept secret. One of the prisoners considers asking a friendly guard to tell him who is the prisoner other than himself that will be released, but hesitates based on the following rationale: at the prisoner present state of knowledge, the probability of being released is 2/3, but after he knows the answer, the probability of being released will become 1 /2, since there will be two prisoners (including himself) whose fate is unknown and exactly one of the two will be released. What is wrong with this line of reasoning?

Reference no: EM131183292

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What is wrong with this line of reasoning : the probability of being released will become 1 /2, since there will be two prisoners (including himself) whose fate is unknown and exactly one of the two will be released. What is wrong with this line of reasoning?

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