Reflection on data-driven decision-making in context

Assignment Help Other Subject

Reference no: EM133903579 , Length: word count:500

Data-driven Forecasting

Task
Apply forecasting techniques to a given dataset and provide a business application of the forecasts.

Assessment Description
You will be provided with a dataset on the day of the assessment.
The data provided for the assessment are a time series of monthly sales revenue for a company.
The objective of the assessment is to use software to:
describe the time series,
develop a sales forecast model.

Assessment Instructions

In class: You will be presented with a dataset in class. As a group, analyse the dataset. Present your work as a group during the third hour of the workshop.

After Class: Individually perform a follow-up analysis, based on a different realisation of the same data set, and which will include the use of Excel. Submit your report and Excel file.

This component of the assessment is to be submitted via Turnitin, within 48 hours of midnight of the day of your class in Week 4.

As a group:
You will be provided with a dynamic dataset on the day of the assessment.
Case Study: Sales Forecasting for NovaTech Electronics

Background:
NovaTech Electronics is a growing retailer specialising in smart home devices. The company has collected monthly sales data for eight years (synthesised data provided) and wants to improve its forecasting accuracy to optimise inventory and marketing strategies. Your group must develop a forecast model and present a data-driven decision-making strategy.

Task:
Your group will apply forecasting techniques to the provided dataset and deliver a presentation
outlining your approach, findings, and recommendations.
Data Analysis (5 marks, 100 words maximum)
Explore the dataset and summarise key insights. Expert help in every subject - assignment help just a click away!
Identify potential trends, seasonality, and irregular patterns.
Visualise the data using appropriate graphs.

Forecasting Application (7 Marks, 50 words maximum)
Apply two forecasting techniques for sales using a software of your choice
Compare the accuracy of the techniques using RMSE.
Justify your model choice based on evidence.

Recommendations for Decision-Making (3 Marks, 100 words maximum)
Interpret the results in a business context.
Provide a forecast-driven strategy for inventory and marketing planning.

Presentation
Each group will deliver a 5-8-minute presentation explaining their methodology, findings,
and recommendations in class in the final hour.
The presentation (about 8 to 12 slides including cover and references) should be well- structured, engaging, and include visualisations and data interpretations.

Task:
Forecasting Application (100 words maximum)
Use the dynamic dataset provided and refresh to have a different realisation of the data for your individual report (which should be different from that used for the group exercise). Fit Prophet to the time series using both additive and multiplicative seasonal models.
State which of the additive or seasonal model is better and give a reason for this preference. State the January seasonal effect for your preferred model (as either a monthly additive effect or a monthly index).
Plot the data and fitted Prophet model for your preferred seasonal model, together with forecasts for 12 months ahead.

Reflection on Data-Driven Decision-Making in context (5 Marks, 150 words maximum)
Discuss qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques in the context of this application.
Reflect on how your forecasting results can impact real-world business decisions in this application.

A 2-page individual report covering the forecast application and reflection.

Reference no: EM133903579

Questions Cloud

?which is the largest segment of the business market : ?Which is the largest segment of the business market? What role does the Internet play in the B2B market? What role do resellers play in the B2B market?

Which of the building blocks of competitive advantage : Which of the building blocks of competitive advantage would you regard as the single most important factor?

How would you design a code of ethics for an organization : How would you design a Code of Ethics for an organization that you have worked for or that you have read about? Explain in detail.

How would these illustrated management principles : How would these illustrated management principles and functions in the movie be applicable in a larger business-for-profit organization?

Reflection on data-driven decision-making in context : Plot the data and fitted Prophet model for your preferred seasonal model, together with forecasts for 12 months ahead - Reflection on Data-Driven Decision

Calculate rms basic eps : Calculate RM's basic EPS for 2025. Are the non-cumulative convertible preferred shares dilutive or antidilutive in nature? The cumulative convertible preferred

What can be done with estimates : SALES AND CUSTOMERS. For those clients subscribed to QuickBooks Online Plus and Advanced plans, what can be done with estimates?

Which template types are good starting points : Which template types are good starting points if your client wants to record transactions in the future that occur on an ad-hoc basis or where the details?

Why reasonable assurance does not guarantee the absence : Your task is to explain assertions, variances and why reasonable assurance does not guarantee the absence of fraud.

User Account

All Pages