Reference no: EM133438043
Context of the scene setter
After a long period of diplomatic exchanges around a new nuclear deal between Iran and the United States, negotiations were suspended by a new Administration, which has voiced skeptical views about any possible deal and expressed its preference for a posture of "maximum pressure".
In parallel to these incidents, a number of Australian research institutions, think tanks and companies, some with ties with the Department of Defence, were on a long list of international victims of a large cyber theft campaign. Attackers were successful in obtaining credentials from a few dozens of Australian researchers through a phishing campaign that demonstrated significant social engineering capabilities. It appears that attackers masqueraded as prominent scholars working at UK institutions and engaged in email exchanges with their targets before leading them to a landing site spoofing OneDrive. There is strong suspicion that the attack emanated from Iran.
Approaches to the scene setter
The objective is to draw lessons from what happened in the past and apply these lessons in the crisis context described in the scene setter.
Drivers
Identify the two main factors that you think drove security dynamics in the precedent and provide a short explanation (why adversaries did what they did).
Consider using DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic), DIMEFIL (Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, Financial, Intelligence, Law Enforcement) or PMESII (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure).
Prospects
Considering the drivers that you have identified, provide an assessment of the present (scene-setter) situation. This section must include an assessment of:
· Most Likely: what is the most likely course of action for one of the actors identified in the scene setter (either Iran or pirates), with what consequences.
· Most Dangerous: what is the most dangerous course of action for one of the actors identified in the scene setter (either Iran or pirates), with what consequences.