Determine the projected global average surface temperature

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Reference no: EM131463981

Global Climate Change

In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a Synthesis Report that provides an integrated view of climate change as part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Use the report to answer the following questions. Remember, this is an "OPEN RESOURCE" assignment.

1a. Using Figure SPM.2 on page 5, list the five categories of total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions for 2010 andprovide the percentage of each.

1b. According to the report (page 5, 2nd paragraph), how likely is it that human influencehas increased the global average surface temperature by increasing GHG emissions from 1951 to 2010?

2. Based on Section SPM 2.2 ‘Projected Changes in the Climate System' (pages 10-13 and Figures SPM.6 and SPM.7), complete the table by listing the projected increase in global mean surface temperaturesin degrees Celsiusat the end of the 21st century (2081-2100) relative to the 1986-2005 average for each climate model (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8). See page 10, 3rd paragraph for information.

Then convert the degrees Celsius to degrees Fahrenheit

[or °F = (°C x 1.8) + 32] and record in the table.

Global Average Surface Temperature Change in 2100 by Model
Temperature Change/Increase	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP6.0	RCP8.5
Degrees Celsius (C )	1.7
Degrees Fahrenheit (F )

(Note: use the highest value in range, i.e., if range is 0.3 to 0.7, put the highest value, 0.7, in the table)

3. The global average surface temperature for 2005 was 14.77 degrees Celsius (= 58.6 degrees Fahrenheit). Complete the table by adding the 2005 temperature to the temperature change (from the table for Question 2) to determine the projected global average surface temperature in 2100 for each model.

Projected Global Average Surface Temperature in 2100 by Model
Temperature RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5
Degrees Celsius (C ) 14.77+1.7 = 16.47
Degrees Fahrenheit (F )

4. Based on SPM 2.4 ‘Climate Change Beyond 2100'page 16, explain, in your own words, why ‘climate change impacts will continue for centuries, even if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped' by discussing the impacts onONE of the following three topics:A) ocean acidification, B)permafrost loss, orC) sea level rise.

BONUS:Define "RCP" anddescribethe level of(A) Radiative forcing,(B) CO2 equivalent (ppm),(C ) Temperature anomaly (°C),and (D) Pathway each model scenario (RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6) represents

Reference no: EM131463981

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