Demonstrate and apply a framework for business analysis

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Reference no: EM132092477 , Length: word count:6000

Subject description

The aim of this course is to demonstrate and apply a framework for business analysis and valuation using financial statement data. The emphasis of the course is on translating the tools of business analysis and valuation into practical situations. To achieve this, the course is relatively case intensive, with this method used to develop key skills as well as demonstrating their application. The course is intended for students interested in business consulting, investment banking, business analysis and corporate lending. Given the increasing trend towards a business analysis-based approach to auditing and assurance services, it is also relevant to those interested in public accounting.

Subject learning objectives (SLOs)

Upon successful completion of this subject students should be able to:

1. apply the basic techniques of financial analysis and business valuation
2. explain the linkage between industry analysis, strategic business analysis, accounting analysis, financial analysis and prospective analysis
3. demonstrate an understanding of how to use various different valuation models
4. explain the benefits and limitations of various different valuation models

Course intended learning outcomes (CILOs)
This subject also contributes specifically to the following program learning objectives:
Critically analyse relevant concepts to understand practice in business and related professions in a global workplace
Demonstrate inter-relationships between differing business and related disciplines
Locate and critically evaluate relevant data and literature to address business problems through a research approach
Apply critical and creative thinking to address issues in business

Assessment

Assessment task 1: Assignment

Objective(s): This addresses subject learning objective(s):

Task: This assignment should be completed in groups of up to five people. Each group is required to select an Australian listed company from a company list provided on UTSOnline. It is required that groups should be finalised by the end of week 1 and a company is chosen by the end of week 2.

Perform macroeconomic analysis, industry analysis, business strategy analysis and accounting analysis based on the chosen company, and produce a professional group report as though you were a prospective management consultant. The analysis should be informed by various sources of publically available information such as the official website of the company and industry reports, and should be supported by ABS data or other statistical information. The report has a total mark of 20 and should cover:

Macroeconomic Analysis: Describe the company's economic environment and evaluate how this has impacted historic firm performance and is likely relevant to future performance.

What has been going on in the economy over the last 5 years? What is predicted to happen? How is it related your company?

Identify and analyse at least three most relevant economics factors that have significantly influenced your company's performance. These economic factors mayinclude but not limited to GDP, inflation, interest rate, foreign exchange rates, oil prices, population growth, consumer demands, etc.

Industry Analysis: Evaluate the level of competition in the industry or industries that your company operates in using Porter's Five Forces framework.

Form a conclusion for each force and for the industry overall. That is, the level of competition is high, moderate or low.

Business Strategy Analysis: Identify and discuss key success factors and key risks of the company's strategy. Also evaluate the sustainability of profits generated by the strategy in the future.

Accounting Analysis: Use the six-step accounting analysis framework to assess the degree to which the firm's accounting reflects the underlying business reality. Identify any accounting distortions if there is any and evaluate their impact on profits and the sustainability of profits.

Overall Report Quality: The report should be readily comprehensible, condensed and within the word limit. Information should be collected from various reliable sources to inform analysis and references are properly cited. Tables and graphs should be used to effectively present information.

If the company operates in several economic regions, industries or has several business segments, only include material business operations in the analysis. It is material if it generates or will generate more than 10% of the company's total sales revenue.

Assessment task 2: Assignment

Based on the same company chosen in the group assignment, reformat the company's financial statements for the past five years in an excel spreadsheet. Produce an individual professional report where ratio and cash flow analysis is performed to evaluate the current and past performance of the company and its sustainability in the future. The report should discuss in details what happened and why the ratios/cash flows changed. Specifically, the report should include the following discussions:

Reformatting:
Present detailed past five years' reformatted financial statements as an appendix in the report.

Ratio analysis:
Calculate and discuss key ratios such as ROE, RNOA, PM, ATO, FLEV and NBC.

Break down and analyse PM and ATO ratios in further details. Identify and discuss three significant expense items that have caused major changes in profit margin. Identify and discuss three major assets or liabilities whose turnover ratios have contributed to the overall change in assets efficiency.

Briefly describe the ratios trend. The analysis should elaborate on the economic, industry and business factors that drive the changes in ratios. The discussion should consistently reflect the same firm fundamentals identified in the group report.

Cash flow analysis:
Calculate liquidity, solvency and cash flow ratios.
Analyse financial risk and cash flow management of the company based on ratios.
Overall Report Quality: The report should be readily comprehensible, condensed and within the word limit. Information should be collected from various reliable sources to inform analysis and references are properly cited. Tables and graphs should be used to effectively present information.

Part B Prospective Analysis and Application
Based on the same company chosen for the group and first individual assignment, produce an individual professional report on the prospective analysis of the company. Forecast the future financial performance of your company for the next five years and beyond. Use four valuation models,
i.e. Dividend Discount Model, Residual Income Model, Residual Operating Income Model and Free Cash Flow Model, to produce an estimate of the firm's share value, and compare to its current stock price. Perform sensitivity analysis on key forecasting assumptions using only Residual Operating Income Model and discuss the results. Based on sensitivity analysis, identify and discuss possible opportunities for improvement and potential challenges for the firm as if you were a management consultant. Provide specific and reasonable remedies for these concerns. The report should cover:

Forecasting:
Prepare your forecasts in an excel spreadsheet following a 10-step forecasting template. The forecasting table should include your specific forecasts for the next five years as well as the
long-term forecast beyond the five-year forecast horizon. The forecasting table should be included as an appendix in the report.
Explain the reasons for your initial forecast assumptions, i.e. assumptions for sales growth, ATO, PM, net dividend payout ratio, cost of debt and cost of equity.

Valuation:
Provide the calculation and results of four valuation models in a table and include it as an appendix in the report.
Compare and discuss the estimates obtained from the four models. Compare the estimates with the actual share price to see whether the firm is currently overvalued or undervalued.

Sensitivity Analysis:
Adjust your initial forecast assumptions to reflect your optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for sales growth, ATO, PM, net dividend payout ratio, cost of debt and cost of equity and recalculate the estimated share value from the residual operating income model. Provide the sensitivity analysis results in a table.
Provide explanations of how the optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for forecasting assumptions are chosen.
Identify and discuss the key assumptions that the valuation is most sensitive to.

Management Consulting Advice:
Based on sensitivity analysis and the key factors that have significant impact on valuation, discuss potential opportunities and challenges for the firm to maintain or improve current profitability.

Provide creative advice on what business strategies and measures specific to your firm that can be adopted to improve value.
Overall Report Quality: The report should be readily comprehensible, condensed and within the word limit. Information should be collected from various reliable sources to inform analysis and references are properly cited. Tables and graphs should be used to effectively present information.

Length: Individual Assignment Part A: maximum 2000 words (exclusive of references and appendices).
Appendices are limited to a maximum of 5 pages. Please use a font size of 11, 2.5cm page margins and a line spacing of 1.5.
Individual Assignment Part B: maximum 4000 words (exclusive of references and appendices). Appendices are limited to a maximum of 10 pages. Please use a font size of 11, 2.5cm page margins and a line spacing of 1.5.

Attachment:- Examples.rar

Reference no: EM132092477

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Reviews

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:16:25 AM

Marking item Marks Exceeds criteria (Distinction/HD = 75% – 100%) Meets criteria (Pass/Credit = 50% – 74%) Overall report quality: /2 Communication is clear, concise and precise. Report is very well written, structured, and presented in a professional and coherent manner. Excellent use of visual material (tables, graphs,) that is well integrated with text. Various reliable sources are used to inform the analysis. The Harvard referencing method is applied consistently with no errors. The formatting, referencing and word count is strictly adhered to. Communication is generally clear and concise, making it easy for the reader to understand. Report is well written, structured, and presented in a professional and coherent manner. Good use of visual material (tables, graphs,) to support text. A few reliable sources are used to inform the analysis. The Harvard referencing method is applied consistently, with a few errors. The formatting, referencing and word count is mostly adhered to (up to 10% over max page limit).

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:16:15 AM

Marking item Marks Exceeds criteria (Distinction/HD = 75% – 100%) Meets criteria (Pass/Credit = 50% – 74%) Overall report quality: /2 Communication is clear, concise and precise. Report is very well written, structured, and presented in a professional and coherent manner. Excellent use of visual material (tables, graphs,) that is well integrated with text. Various reliable sources are used to inform the analysis. The Harvard referencing method is applied consistently with no errors. The formatting, referencing and word count is strictly adhered to. Communication is generally clear and concise, making it easy for the reader to understand. Report is well written, structured, and presented in a professional and coherent manner. Good use of visual material (tables, graphs,) to support text. A few reliable sources are used to inform the analysis. The Harvard referencing method is applied consistently, with a few errors. The formatting, referencing and word count is mostly adhered to (up to 10% over max page limit).

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:16:07 AM

provided a convincing, detailed insight on the potential opportunities and/or challenges for the firm to maintain or improve current profitability. The discussion explicitly refer to the sensitivity analysis and the key factors that have significant impact on valuation. provide credible, creative advice specifically tailored to your firm on what business strategies and measures can be adopted to improve value for your firm. This may be because the advice is too generic.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:15:59 AM

Management consulting advice: /8 Provides a convincing, detailed insight on the potential opportunities and challenges for the firm to maintain or improve current profitability. The discussion explicitly refers to the sensitivity analysis and the key factors that have significant impact on valuation. Provides credible, creative advice specifically tailored to your firm on what business strategies and measures can be adopted to improve value for your firm. Discusses some potential opportunities and challenges for the firm to maintain or improve current profitability. The discussion implicitly refers to the sensitivity analysis and the key factors that have significant impact on valuation. Provides advice to your firm on what business strategies and measures can be adopted to improve value for your firm.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:15:50 AM

provided convincing explanations of how and optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for forecasting assumptions are chosen. This may be because the report simply states that the various factors of sales growth and PM etc are increased/decreased by a certain % with justification of their assumptions based on the historical performance of the company and the economic factors at play. explicitly identify and/or comprehensively discuss the key assumptions the valuation is most sensitive to.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:15:42 AM

learly and/or convincingly adjust the initial forecast assumptions to reflect your optimistic and/or pessimistic outcomes for sales growth, ATO, PM, net dividend payout ratio, cost of debt and/or cost of equity. Does not correctly recalculate the estimated share value from the residual operating income model. clearly and/or professionally present the sensitivity analysis results in a table and/or does not clearly illustrate the base case versus the sensitivity analysis. correctly and/or explicitly refer to the tables in the analysis. The font is large making the data easy to read. The data is formatted consistently throughout, and/or some data is present, e.g. it has been cut off at the margins.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:15:23 AM

Adjusts the initial forecast assumptions to reflect your optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for sales growth, ATO, PM, net dividend payout ratio, cost of debt and cost of equity. Recalculates the estimated share value from the residual operating income model. Presents sensitivity analysis results in a table that illustrates the base case versus the sensitivity analysis. Implicitly refers to the tables in the analysis. The font is of sufficient size so that most data can be read, the data is mostly formatted consistently throughout, and most data is present and not cut off. Provides basic explanations of how and why some of the optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for forecasting assumptions are chosen. Identifies and discusses some of the key assumptions the valuation is most sensitive to

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:15:14 AM

Clearly and convincingly adjusts the initial forecast assumptions to reflect your optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for sales growth, ATO, PM, net dividend payout ratio, cost of debt and cost of equity. Correctly recalculates the estimated share value from the residual operating income model. Clearly and professionally presents sensitivity analysis results in a table that clearly illustrates the base case versus the sensitivity analysis. Correctly and explicitly refers to the tables in the analysis. The font is of sufficient size so that all data can clearly and easily be read, the data is formatted consistently throughout, and all data is present and not cut off. Provides convincing explanations of how and why the optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for forecasting assumptions are chosen. Explicitly identifies and comprehensively discusses the key assumptions the valuation is most sensitive to

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:15:05 AM

correctly calculate the results from 4 valuation models in a table. explicitly include the correct calculation of WACC, CAPM, share price and/or the date of the share price. clearly present valuation models in the appendix and/or correctly and/or explicitly refer to them in the analysis. The font is too small making the data difficult to read. The data is formatted consistently throughout, and/or some data is PRESENT, e.g. it has been cut off at the margins. Does compare and/or convincingly discuss the estimates obtained from the four models. explicitly compare the estimates with the share price and/or convincingly explain whether the firm is currently overvalued or undervalued. evaluate the models and/or convincingly provide insight on why some models may project the most reliable share price outcome.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:14:57 AM

Valuation: /4 Correctly calculates the results from 4 valuation models in a table. Explicitly includes the correct calculation of WACC, CAPM, share price and date of the share price. Clearly and professionally presents valuation models in the appendix and correctly and explicitly refers to them in the analysis. The font is of sufficient size so that all data can clearly and easily be read, the data is formatted consistently throughout, and all data is present and not cut off. Compares and convincingly discusses the estimates obtained from the four models. Explicitly compares the estimates with the share price and convincingly explains whether the firm is currently overvalued or undervalued. Evaluates the models and convincingly provides insight on why some models may not project the most reliable share price outcome.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:14:48 AM

Valuation: /4 Correctly calculates the results from 4 valuation models in a table. Explicitly includes the correct calculation of WACC, CAPM, share price and date of the share price. Clearly and professionally presents valuation models in the appendix and correctly and explicitly refers to them in the analysis. The font is of sufficient size so that all data can clearly and easily be read, the data is formatted consistently throughout, and all data is present and not cut off. Compares and convincingly discusses the estimates obtained from the four models. Explicitly compares the estimates with the share price and convincingly explains whether the firm is currently overvalued or undervalued. Evaluates the models and convincingly provides insight on why some models may not project the most reliable share price outcome.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:14:37 AM

Here is a new assignment. we doing assignment 2 (individual), with company Metcash. It has Part A (2000 words) due 17/09 and Part B (4000 words) due 15/10. Criteria not yet met (Fail = 0% – 49%) correctly and/or convincingly prepare a 5-year or long-term forecast for your organisation. clearly present the forecasts in the report body/appendix and/or correctly and/or explicitly refer to them in the analysis. The font is large making the data easy to read. The data is not formatted consistently throughout, and/or some data is missing, e.g. it has been cut off at the margins. xplicitly and convincingly explain the reasons for all of your initial forecast assumptions, i.e. assumptions for sales growth, ATO, PM, net dividend payout ratio, cost of debt and cost of equity. This may be because the report simply states that the average of past 2-3 years are representative of the future and/or the report makes very little attempt to justify assumptions or display understanding of the business, the economic environment in which the business operates and/or the sustainability of the recent performance of the business

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:13:32 AM

All graphs and tables should be clearly sequenced, source referenced and referred to within the report, not simply attached to the end of the report. Do not simply produce a series of graphs and place them in an ad hoc fashion at the end of the report as they do not add any value there. They must be closely tied into your report. Graphs and tables must be of a consistent size and the font size must be clearly legible. If you have multiple elements, then ensure it is clear which line relates to which factor; if necessary use a colour printer. Do not crowd the graph with data so that it is not legible. Make sure all axes are labelled. Do not split tables across pages – either change the font size or look at your layout so that the table is always on one page. The reference page should always be in alphabetical order. Be careful to ensure that you have the family name and then the initial of their first name the correct way

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:12:45 AM

Management Consulting Advice This section is worth 8 marks and better students should be able to identify 4-6 areas of potential or challenge and suggest remedies. The more detail that a student is able to provide, the greater the level of analysis and understanding of your client is evidenced. Students should be able to draw on their knowledge gleaned in the group assignment in terms of economic factors and the Porter’s analysis to determine the challenges and strengths for their company. The Blackmore’s example provided has only achieved this at a moderate level and as a client, I would think Blackmore’s would be underwhelmed at the advice given to them after following their company for 12 weeks.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:12:38 AM

Sensitivity Analysis Weaker responses simply state that the various factors of sales growth and PM etc are increased/decreased by a certain % without any justification of their assumptions based on the historical performance of the company and the economic factors at play. The tables should be very clear in illustrating the base case versus the sensitivity analysis. The Blackmore’s example provided illustrates both the base case outcome and the impact of the sensitivity analysis well. Greater detail on the choice of assumptions is warranted.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:12:31 AM

Valuation The models have been well covered in lectures and tutorials and should present no problem to the students to provide in a clear format with all information incorporated. Calculation of the WACC and CAPM should also be provided. The information presented should also clearly state the actual share price (year-end or more recent specified date) and a clear statement provided comparing the outcome of the models compared to this share price. Students are asked to determine whether the share price is under, over or correctly valued by comparison to the models and state why some models may not project the most reliable share price outcome. The Blackmore’s example provided, clearly and concisely addresses the question although it would be neater if the tables could be illustrated on the dialogue pages.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:12:22 AM

Forecasting As per the reformatting work, this should be a straightforward exercise and the forecasting can either be within the report or attached as an appendix. Students should ensure that the font is of sufficient size so that all data is legible and that nothing is cut off in the margins Explain your reasons for forecast assumptions. Weaker responses will simply state that the average of past 2-3 years are representative of the future and make very little attempt to justify their assumptions or display understanding of the business, the economic environment in which they operate and the sustainability of their recent performance. Students who have read the annual report, followed the company in the press and analysed more deeply will illustrate this in their answers. The example provided shows some considerable understanding of Blackmore’s recent performance but recognises that some of these growth figures are unsustainable and justifies their answers with strong evidence. Another strength of this report is the wide use of graphs referred to throughout the report and clearly tied in to their arguments.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:12:04 AM

Presentation of graphs at back of report is not ideal and would be better placed alongside its respective comment. Table 2.6 overlaps 2.5. Graphs should be numbered in order according to how they are addressed in report but this report starts with ROE but has numbered that graph 2.4. Graph of PM is too small and numbers are indistinct. There is very little detail provided as to why PM has changed over the past 5 years. Figures in inventory section must be in $000 or $million, not as stated. Most of the analysis rests on stating what the ratios are at a given date but gives little comment on what caused those changes and whether this is of concern or acceptable. There is insufficient evidence of peeling back the layers of the company to understand what has caused any of these changes over the past 5 years.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:11:56 AM

The real value of this section is providing an insight into the trend of the ratios and the factors behind these trends. Weaker responses will simply track the movement over the 5 years which adds very little to the report as the reader can determine that from the table themselves. Stronger students will understand what is at play behind these movements in terms of company performance, economic factors, new markets, cost factors etc.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:11:49 AM

Individual Assignment Part A Reformatting This should be a straightforward exercise and the reformatted statements should be attached as an appendix. Students should ensure that the font is of sufficient size so that all data is legible and that nothing is cut off in the margins. Ratio and CF analysis Ideally the ratios will be presented in a clear table within the report so the reader can digest them ahead of the analysis. Do not undertake a lengthy explanation of how to calculate the ratios. Students should understand what makes up the numerator and the denominator of each ratio and therefore what has caused the increase or decrease. Wide reading about the company from its annual report and the press will help with this. Do not simply repeat what the company has said in their report as this may just be spin.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:11:40 AM

Accounting analysis Review Palepu before commencing this section as it provides an easy guide and questions to ask, particularly in terms of their strategy and disclosure. There is quite a range in transparency by companies, some are willing only to disclose what they must, others providing far greater detail. As an example, some companies will provide a full breakdown of the maturity structure of their loans and Accounting analysis Review Palepu before commencing this section as it provides an easy guide and questions to ask, particularly in terms of their strategy and disclosure. There is quite a range in transparency by companies, some are willing only to disclose what they must, others providing far greater detail. As an example, some companies will provide a full breakdown of the maturity structure of their loans and

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:11:25 AM

Industry Analysis Students should not undertake this section until they have thoroughly reviewed the relevant chapters in the textbook by Palepu which provides a detailed step-by-step guide to the process. State up front what industry your company operates within. Try and stylise the Porter’s diagram for your company showing level of competition. Then give details about each of the major factors. The example provided largely repeats Allday’s findings and Palepu’s text, does not define the industry and they should have placed their Porter’s diagram at front of section. Business strategy Whilst the example has addressed a number of key success and risk factors, it is very disappointing to see that this has largely been quoted from Blackmore’s annual report. The role of the analyst is to independently review a company, not simply restate company marketing material which, to a large extent, an annual report reflects.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:11:14 AM

Macro Analysis. The subject outline clearly states what is required. Students should set the scene from the outset. What company are you analysing? What countries is it primarily involved in? Then select some key economic figures and ideally present them in a table for the reader to absorb before they embark on reading your analysis. The example provided has no introduction and does not mention Blackmores until midway through page 2. Figures 2 and 3 would be helpful up front to set the scene. Most of the information is a simple quote exercise from a number of reliable sources and the students have not been able to digest this and relay it in their own words. The report reads as though it is a shopping list of facts and figures. One sentence only per paragraph regarding Blackmore’s and figures incorrectly stated – presumably should be in $000. No comment on figures 2-3 provided in report

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:11:02 AM

In addition to the detail provided in the subject outline, we are providing some past examples and guidance which we hope will provide students greater clarity into our expectations. This is a capstone subject. By now, students should be able to write in a succinct fashion, ensuring all the valuable material is captured within the report within the word limit. This is often a challenge. The other key factor at play here is to write the reports in your own words. If you are being paid as a management consultant, you cannot lift information out of another author’s papers, so whilst you need to research your material thoroughly, only original work will be well graded.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:09:08 AM

Individual Assignment Part A: maximum 2000 words (exclusive of references and appendices). Appendices are limited to a maximum of 5 pages. Please use a font size of 11, 2.5cm page margins and a line spacing of 1.5. Individual Assignment Part B: maximum 4000 words (exclusive of references and appendices). Appendices are limited to a maximum of 10 pages. Please use a font size of 11, 2.5cm page margins and a line spacing of 1.5.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:08:56 AM

3. All group reports should have a cover page which includes the chosen company name, student name and ID of each group member and a word count. All reports should have an introduction and a conclusion. Table of content and executive summary are optional. Harvard referencing style should be used. 4. Students may submit their group report to TurninIn as many times as they like prior to the submission deadline. If an assignment has already been submitted before the deadline, resubmissions after the deadline are not allowed . 5. Students are able to submit late assignments to TurnitIn only once after the submission deadline. For each day that the assignment is late, the assignment will lose 10% of the raw assignment mark. Special considerations are approved only if they are applied before the submission deadline for serious medical or personal reasons with supporting documents.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:08:16 AM

Content (topics) Industry and strategy analysis: Understanding the strategic decisions businesses make to create/maximize shareholder value, as well as the constraints within which this occurs. Accounting analysis: Understanding the link between strategic considerations and the financial statements, including identification of the quality of accounting numbers. Financial analysis: Assessing the financial performance and position of a business using ratio analysis and cash flow analysis, in light of the strategic direction and accounting quality identified. Prospective analysis: Forecasting financial results. Prospective analysis: Valuation models - Understanding investment returns, and how valuation models are developed to anticipate abnormal returns. Prospective analysis: Valuation models - Implementation Application: Using forecasted financial statements to develop a valuation, and the assessment of that value’s sensitivity to strategic, accounting and financial considerations.

len2092477

8/22/2018 2:08:08 AM

development of graduate attributes This course focuses on establishing a clear linkage between several skills normally acquired by business students so as to enable them to conduct rigorous business analysis and prepare sound business valuations. The course combines skills in business strategy, finance and accounting, so as to enable students to apply these methods of analysis in combination. It also contributes to the accounting major by demonstrating the analysis of accounting quality and its implications for financial analysis and valuation. This subject contributes to the development of the following graduate attributes: Business knowledge and concepts Critical thinking, creativity and analytical skills

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