Define numerical weather prediction models

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1. Summarize the lifecycle of a typical single cell thunderstorm. In your answer, you need to explain how updrafts form and how downdrafts form. Make sure you discuss the importance of the phase change of water for each.

2. Explain how hail forms? You need to understand that the middle part of a cumulonimbus cloud, where the air temperature is between -40° C and 0° C, there exists a combination of ice and supercooled liquid water droplets, which are cloud droplets that remain liquid even though the temperature is below the normal freezing point of liquid water. This should be part of your explanation.

3. What is the function of the mid-tropospheric "convective cap" or "inversion layer" in the development of some supercell thunderstorms that may form strong tornadoes?

4. We know that lightning and thunder occur simultaneously. If so, why do we see lightning first? Suppose you see a cloud-to-ground lightning strike and then you count 3 seconds before hearing the thunder. How far away was the lightning strike?

5. In the text references are made to "good ozone" and "bad ozone." What is "good ozone", where is it located in the atmosphere, and why is it good? What is "bad ozone", where is it located in the atmosphere, and why is it bad?

6. Why should we worry about the amount of ozone in the stratosphere? Briefly discuss how human activity has influenced the amount of ozone in the stratosphere. What is the future outlook for ozone levels in the stratosphere? Explain your answers.

7. Below is a 500 mb map from February 2010. The map shows a trough of low pressure centered over Iowa. Based on this 500 mb map, explain whether or not you expect precipitation at points A and B on the map. If an area is associated with rising motion, what else is needed for precipitation to occur? Hint: A similar example is shown at the bottom of lecture 33.

8. On June 20, 2017, the high at Tucson International Airport was 116 Degrees F, the warmest temperature since 1994. Is this single event an example of weather or climate? Why? Does this single event provide sufficient evidence that the climate of southern Arizona is getting warmer due to global warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases? Explain your answer.

9. In comparing the climates of Tucson, AZ and San Diego, CA, which city has the larger standard deviation in temperature throughout the year? Present some statistics that show that one of these cities has much more extreme temperature variations over the year than
the other, and depending on the time of year is both colder and hotter than the other city. (The statistics you need are provided in a Word Document on D2L).A B

10. What are the two most significant sources for error in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models? What is an ensemble forecast, and how can we use ensembles to improve weather forecasts?

Extra credit questions:

11. You are planning a camping trip in western Pennsylvania in mid October. To make sure you have proper equipment, you look at an NWP ensemble product seven days out. 16 out of the 20 ensemble members show a trough of low pressure over the Eastern US during your trip. What kind of weather do you expect on your trip, and why? How likely is it that you will experience warmer than normal temperatures? If you had to pack your gear seven days out, would you bring warm clothes? Instructor's Note: This is a real life situation I have been in before.

Reference no: EM131619343

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