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We can discount cash flows either by using spot rates or forward rates, because a spot rate is simply a package of short-term forward rates. Assume that the cash flow of period T is $1; then, the present value of the cash flow using the spot rate for period T will be as follows:
PV of $1 in M periods =
We know that,
yT = [(1 + y1) (1 + 1f1) (1 + 1f2) (1 + 1f3) ..... (1 + 1fT-1)]1/ T - 1
Adding 1 on both sides of the equations,
(1 + yT) = [(1 + y1) (1 + 1f1) (1 + 1f2) (1 + 1f3) ..... (1 + 1fT - 1)]1/ T
Raising both sides of the equations to the T-th power, we get:
(1 + yT)T = [(1 + y1) (1 + 1f1) (1 + 1f2) (1 + 1f3) ..... (1 + 1fT - 1)]
The present value of X1 in M periods can be determined by substituting the value calculated in the above step into the present value formula.
PV of X1 M periods =
The present value of Rs.1 in T period is called the forward discount factor for period T.
1. The standard approach here is to calculate some conventional ratios. These ratios can afterwards be used along with regression analysis to estimate the default probability.
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