Quatitative methods, Advanced Statistics

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An oil company is considering whether or not to bid for an offshore drilling contract. If they bid, the value would be $600m with a 65% chance of gaining the contract. The company may set up a new drilling operation or move its already existing operation, which has proved successful to the new site. The probability of success and expected returns (in $m) are as follows:



If the company does not bid or lose the contract, they can use the $600m to modernize their operations. This would result in a return of either 5% or 10% on the sum invested with probabilities 0.45 and 0.55 respectively.

With the aid of a decision tree, prepare a detailed quantitative report advising the company on the best course of action.

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