Fluctuations in growth rates - estimation of national income, Microeconomics

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Fluctuations in Growth Rates:

Fluctuations in year-to-year growth rates in early stages were very marked, which indicated that the economy had failed to create conditions conducive to stable economic growth. We depended on chance factors, like monsoon. Such impressive growth rates as were witnessed in the past were due to chance elements rather than due to planned efforts. Recent growth has been more robust; it has been less vulnerable to agricultural performance and to vagaries of the monsoon. In the initial stage, there was a tendency towards an increase in the element of fluctuations over successive decades. 

An examination of the annual rates of change – observed by the three sectors of the economy, primary, secondary and tertiary – further shows that the annual variations are not specific to any one sector. Fluctuations are observable in all the sectors, although their order of magnitude is higher in the primary sector, followed by the secondary sector and the tertiary sector in that order. 

 


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