Experts averag - forecasting methods, Corporate Finance

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This method simply calculates the average of a number of expert estimates. Let E denote the number of experts, and mn,e denote the forecast of expert e, e =1, ... ,E, for SKU n 2N. Then the average experts' forecast mn for SKU n can be written as

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This averaging method was applied by Fisher and Raman (1996), Fisher et al. (2000), who use panels of 7 and 4 experts, respectively. The use of an expert panel (also referred to as a buying committee) in forecasting has also been documented by Raman (1999), Mantrala and Rao (2001). Combining forecasts of experts increases accuracy, because inconsistencies of one expert tend to cancel out the inconsistencies of another (Blattberg and Hoch, 1990)


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