You have an investment in a portfolio with a counterparty whose current credit rating is Baa. The current market value of the portfolio is $50,000,000 and its annual volatility is 40%. Given below are the credit transition matrix and the 1 year default probabilities. Transition Matrix (As Percentages):
Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca-C D
Baa 0.05 0.34 4.94 87.79 5.54 0.84 0.17 0.02 0.01
Default Probability (As Percentages):
0 0.008 0.02 0.017 1.125 4.66 17.723 25.213 1
a. Estimate the 1 year 99% Parametric Market VAR (Credit Exposure) for the investment (z = 2.33). Note: For parametric VAR we assume normal distribution.
b. Attached Excel spreadsheet shows the results of 1000 random draws from a standard normal distribution. Using these values and the tables above, estimate the distribution of one year default probabilities and credit losses (Credit Loss = Market VAR*default Probability).
c. Estimate the 99% Credit VAR