Calculate the mean absolute percentage error, Basic Statistics

Littlefield Laboratories is a state-of-the-art highly automated blood samples testing lab. The demand of blood sample testing for the previous 20 days (day 1 to day 20) are given in the EXCEL file "LF demand.xls" on Blackboard. You are asked to perform demand forecast for day 22. There are two steps to that end. First you need to choose a "best" forecasting model and, second, use that model to forecast demand on day 22. The manager does not specify which forecasting model you should use, so you need to compare different forecasting models to determine the appropriate one to use. You consider the following four models.

1215_Calculate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error.png

To see which model works the best, you need to compare their forecast accuracy for demand in the past. In other words, you compare their forecast accuracy for days 5 to 20 (comparing days 5 to 20 because you can derive forecasts for every model starting on day 5).

a. Please calculate forecasts and MAPE of each of the four forecasting models for days 5 to 20.

b. Please plot actual demand for days 1 to 20, forecasts of moving average for days 5 to 20 on the same chart in EXCEL. You should see that forecasts of moving average lag behind the trend.

c. Which forecasting model generates the smallest MAPE? You will pick that model to forecast demand for day 22 because historically it produces the smallest forecast error. Please forecast demand for day 22 using the model with the smallest MAPE.

Posted Date: 3/6/2013 4:40:26 AM | Location : United States







Related Discussions:- Calculate the mean absolute percentage error, Assignment Help, Ask Question on Calculate the mean absolute percentage error, Get Answer, Expert's Help, Calculate the mean absolute percentage error Discussions

Write discussion on Calculate the mean absolute percentage error
Your posts are moderated
Related Questions
Define block grant A federal grant that consolidates, for a wide reason or any type of purpose, funds previously awarded for a wide variety of activities.

difference between tests of goodness of fit & tests of independence

Bonds payable The face worth of bonds issued and honorary. In the case of zero-coupon bonds, however, and the only and the accreted value of the tie is reported as bonds owed on t

what are the aims of education


various types of index numbers constructed in india ????

Q1.(i) The logistics department of a large firm employs three "estimators" whose job it is to decide the likely cost of delivering their products to their customers.  This enables

Vital statistics may be interpreted in two ways-in a broader sense it refers to all types of population statistics by whatever mode collected while in a narrower sense it refers o

#how will understand question..moving average method problems for 4yearly&5yearly also

Define Betterment An inclusion created to, or modify created in, an investment resource, other than servicing, that is estimated to improve its predicted useful life or to improve