Calculate the mean absolute percentage error, Basic Statistics

Littlefield Laboratories is a state-of-the-art highly automated blood samples testing lab. The demand of blood sample testing for the previous 20 days (day 1 to day 20) are given in the EXCEL file "LF demand.xls" on Blackboard. You are asked to perform demand forecast for day 22. There are two steps to that end. First you need to choose a "best" forecasting model and, second, use that model to forecast demand on day 22. The manager does not specify which forecasting model you should use, so you need to compare different forecasting models to determine the appropriate one to use. You consider the following four models.

1215_Calculate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error.png

To see which model works the best, you need to compare their forecast accuracy for demand in the past. In other words, you compare their forecast accuracy for days 5 to 20 (comparing days 5 to 20 because you can derive forecasts for every model starting on day 5).

a. Please calculate forecasts and MAPE of each of the four forecasting models for days 5 to 20.

b. Please plot actual demand for days 1 to 20, forecasts of moving average for days 5 to 20 on the same chart in EXCEL. You should see that forecasts of moving average lag behind the trend.

c. Which forecasting model generates the smallest MAPE? You will pick that model to forecast demand for day 22 because historically it produces the smallest forecast error. Please forecast demand for day 22 using the model with the smallest MAPE.

Posted Date: 3/6/2013 4:40:26 AM | Location : United States







Related Discussions:- Calculate the mean absolute percentage error, Assignment Help, Ask Question on Calculate the mean absolute percentage error, Get Answer, Expert's Help, Calculate the mean absolute percentage error Discussions

Write discussion on Calculate the mean absolute percentage error
Your posts are moderated
Related Questions
1. Sketch and explain different regions of a pressure-volume diagram of a full cardiac cycle. 2. Sketch and explain the relationship between cardiac output and end-diastolic vol

Difference between Historigrams and Histogram

What is cut-off date A chosen manually date whereby transactions usually are stopped to give for closing of the books of accounts for a known period: for audit purposes,

In June 2009, the average Australian credit card account balance was $3,127, according to data extracted Assuming that these balances are approximately Normally distributed with a

So I can send you a word problem & you van send the answers back in excel for me?

Define various methods in accounting, specifications and procedures.

Calculate the quartile deviation??805,796,810,785,810,790,800 and 785

For the month of June, Department A of Pauley Inc. had a segment margin ratio of 15%, a variable expense ratio of 60% of sales, and traceable fixed expenses of $15,000. Department

what are the methods of sampling