What holiday results in the maximum sales for the department

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Reference no: EM13891624

Dry Goods Sales

The data is for weekly sales in the dry goods department at a Wal*Mart store in the Northeast.

I.e. spikes, usually occur at holiday periods. Week 1 is the first week of February 2003. To s week 1 of 2004 is represented as week 53 since week 53 represents the start of the 2004 fisc values are adjusted in order to disguise true sales figures, but trends in the data are retained fo purposes. Note that for 2002­2003 data, Wal*Mart used 53 weeks for their fiscal year data.

Week

Sales in $

41

18000

42

16800

43

15200

44

15000

45

13600

46

16000

47

12600

48

14800

49

16800

50

14800

51

15200

52

16000

53

15600

54

15600

55

15000

56

15700

57

15800

58

13800

59

12800

60

14400

61

15800

62

16000

63

12400

64

16200

65

17000

66

18600

67

16000

68

18000

69

19600

70

18600

71

18450

72

18000

73

18200

74

18600

75

16000

76

15200

77

16800

78

15800

79

17600

80

15800

81

15600

82

14200

83

16600

84

16100

85

14100

86

14400

87

14500

88

16900

89

17000

90

16000

91

17800

Dry Goods 2003-2004

1. Can you identify holiday periods or special events that cause the spikes in the data?

2. What holiday results in the maximum sales for this department?

3. a) Generate linear and quadratic models for this data.

b) What is the marginal sales for this department using each model.

c) Which model do you feel best predicts future trends and explain your rational.

4. Based on the model selected, what type of seasonal adjustments, if any, would be required to meet customer needs?

5. Some items were added or subtracted from the 2003-2004 dry goods department data when compared with the data available for the previous year (2002-2003).

a) Use your best model for the 2003-2004 data set to predict sales for the next four weeks. Provide chart and model backup for predictions.

b) Compute the percent rate of increase (y2-y1) / y1 for the next four weeks using results from part a). Provide appropriate backup material.

c) Using 2002-2003 data, find the percentage rate of increase for the next four weeks. Provide chart, model and computation backup. Note and discuss differences in part b) and part c) results.

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Reference no: EM13891624

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