Reference no: EM131087020
Problem 2: Television Network's Case
A television network earns $2.5 million dollars each season for a hit program and loses $0.5 million each season for a flop. Ingeneral, 19% of the programs are considered hits and 81% of the programs are flops. If the network does not make anyprogram, no profit will be earned.
(1) Construct the 1st decision tree that is the "No Any Information" tree to capture the above scenario.
(2) Based on (1), should the network continue making programs? Why or Why not. Please explain in detail.
(3) Construct the 2nd decision tree that has both "No Any Information" and "Perfect Information" decision alternatives.
(4) Based on (3), calculate EVPI.
(5) Based on (4), is it better for the network with the perfect information before they decide whether or not to make anyprogram? Why or Why not. Please explain in detail.
At a cost of $400,000, a research firm will analyze the pilot episode and issue a report predicting whether the program isgoing to be a hit or a flop. From the past data, if the program is going to be a hit, there is a 90% chance that the research firmpredicted it is going to be a hit. On the other hand, there is a 20% chance the research firm predicted that the program is goingto be a hit, but ended as a flop.
(6) Construct the 3rd decision tree that has both "No Any Information" and the "Research Firm" decision alternatives. Be
careful to calculate the appropriate probabilities and to include them in the decision tree.
(7) Based on (6), calculate the EVII.
(8) Based on (7), what should the network do? Should the network pay to consult the research firm? Why or Why not.Please explain in detail.
Note that your trees should include the following considerations if any.
- We use the negative sign (-) for the cost, the expenses, cash outflow, etc.
- We use the positive sign (+) for the revenue, profit, cash inflow, etc.
- The three trees that you build for Part 1, Part 3, and Part 6 respectively must be separated from one another
The number of companies offering flexible work schedules
: Flextime The number of companies offering flexible work schedules has increased as companies try to help employees cope with the demands of home and work. One flextime schedule is to work four 10-hour shifts. However, a big obstacle to flextime sc..
|
Information in future promotions-packaging
: The FTC ordered Revlon to include more information in future promotions/packaging that warned people about leaving the product on too long. This is an example of:
|
Find four articles in the walden library related to stress
: While there are specific stress management techniques proven to be effective, this does not relieve health psychology professionals from finding the most suitable stress management strategies for their clients and the specific stressors from which..
|
Initial public offering
: The average returns on the first day of trading following an initial public offering are significantly positive suggesting that firms leave a significant amount of money on the table.
|
The network continue making programs
: A television network earns $2.5 million dollars each season for a hit program and loses $0.5 million each season for a flop. Ingeneral, 19% of the programs are considered hits and 81% of the programs are flops. If the network does not make anyprog..
|
What software package will you need to purchase
: What software package will you need to purchase to complete the process? Provide arguments for your decision. What techniques should be run in Steps 4 and 5?
|
Designing a training program
: Create a written proposal in which you detail the complete design of an employee training program. Write a six to eight (6-8) page paper in which you:
|
What is the voltage between prong a and ground at 270°
: What is the voltage between prong A and ground at 270°?
|
Discuss how operant conditioning contributes to successful
: Finally, briefly discuss how operant conditioning contributes to successful adaptation by animals and humans to the demands of their environments (a few well thought out sentences should do the trick here; recall this week's lectures on learning).
|