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You are an outdoor concert manager that is evaluating whether to have an outdoor concert in Boston in April. The weather can be either good or bad, and the turnout for the concert can be either high or low. Historically, Boston has good weather in April 60% of the time. If the weather is good, there is a 90% chance turnout is high. If the weather is bad, there is a 70% chance that turnout is low. Further assume that a high turnout implies that 1000 people attend and a low turnout implies that 200 people attend. Tickets cost $5 per person and the fixed cost of putting on the concert is $6000
a. What is the probability that there is a low turnout for the concert?
b. If turnout is high what is the probability that the weather is not good?
c. What is the expected value and variance of your profit? Would you put on this concert, or not?
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