Develop an appropriate forecast using exponential smoothing

Assignment Help Other Subject
Reference no: EM132280925

Assignment: Time Series

Overview - This assignment asks you to use forecasting tools to predict the price of gas based on the historical record of prices in Ottawa.

Note: The forecasting can be done either directly in Excel or by utilizing the built in functionality of the Analytic Solver plugin

Part 1: Collecting the Data

Download the SourceData.csv file from Moodle and save it as an excel file. Manipulate the data to isolate only the data that we are interested in - the price of Regular Unleaded Gasoline in Ottawa, on or after June 6, 2005. Place this data in a separate worksheet, name this worksheet OttawaRegGas. This new sheet is what you will use for your forecast.

Part 2: Creating a Forecast

Complete question 5, parts a through d, using the Ottawa data rather than the table provided in the question. When the text's questions refer to days, substitute in weeks - otherwise the questions remain the same.

Part 3: Adding Trends to the Model

3A: Adding a Trend (Holt's Method)

Develop an appropriate forecast using exponential smoothing with a trend (Holt's method).

3B: Adding Cyclicality (Holt-Winter's Method)

Develop an appropriate forecast using exponential smoothing with a trend and cyclicality (Holt-Winter's method).

Part 4: Choosing the Best Model

Which model, of all the forecasts performed in this assignment, is the best?

Cite one factor that lead the best model to be more appropriate than the other ones.

Suggest two improvements that could be made to make the forecast even better?

Reference no: EM132280925

Questions Cloud

Support the development of teams : If you have never worked on a high-performing team, describe how you think the climate and/or culture of your current organization would support the development
Locate a code of ethics online : Locate a code of ethics online. Discuss the impact of the code of ethics on day-to-day operations.
Why would a company outsource parts of its supply chain : What is the value of sales and operations planning in supply chain integration? What happens if sales does not communicate effectively with operations?
Was there a management failure here : 1) Was there a management failure here; if so, what? 2) What is the hotel's immediate response(or action)) to the incident?
Develop an appropriate forecast using exponential smoothing : Assignment: Time Series. Develop an appropriate forecast using exponential smoothing with a trend (Holt's method)
Show how the expected profits and order quantities for range : You have been hired by a vendor who is preparing for an upcoming K-Pop (Korean pop music) concert featuring the singer IU (Lee Ji-eun) in Cincinnati.
Decision making important in an organization : Why is an effective decision making important in an organization? Please explain.
Disengage and ultimately separate from the team : Alfred, Mario, and Lydia have worked together on the same team for three years. The company has just hired a new personnel
Alternative treatment relative to standard treatment : What is the ICER for the alternative treatment relative to the standard treatment?

Reviews

len2280925

4/11/2019 11:41:18 PM

Deliverables - The deliverables for this assignment are: A written report providing - Title page with Student’s names and group name, date of submission, Class Section, The answers to each of the questions. Include a screenshot of the summary data and the final 8 weeks of projections for the forecast questions. Your spreadsheet(s).

Write a Review

 

Other Subject Questions & Answers

  International standards organization

Explain about international CQI recognition like the International Standards Organization ISO9000 or Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award (MBNQA?)

  Choose one of the following hypothetical cases

Your job is to act like a judge and offer a decision on the case, given the facts and the constitutional precedent discussed this semester.

  Essay summary and reflection for journal entry

Hagg uses the parable of the fox and the hedgehog to contrast different kind of social lives. Use this parable to contrast two things for parents.

  What treatment option are available for expectant parent

What assessment, diagnostic, and treatment option are available for expectant parent today? Which of, if you and your spouse/partner were expecting a child

  How do you know a waterborne illness outbreak has occurred

How do you know a waterborne illness outbreak has occurred? What would you do in such an event? What is a current issue in water and wastewater treatment operations?

  State why the question is important

State the research question you are trying to answer (You will pick 1 of 3 available as a group). State why the question is important.

  Is it an accurate representation of the wealth in america

What areas of social inequality have you or your family experienced? Describe a situation when you or someone you know has experienced social inequality.

  Design and build a graphical representation of a web-based

due week 6 and worth 100 points there are many kinds of input controls. write a 4-5 page paper in which youexplain the

  Components of gross national product

What are the components of Gross National Product (GNP)? How does it understate aggregate production in Third World countries where substantial economic production may be consumed directly and thus not reach markets where it can be measured?

  Which specific section of document most intriguing for you

Identify one passage in the U.S. Constitution that you think is the most important to ensure the proper functioning of American government. This question requires a specific passage to be cited, not a general principle of governing [e.g. "checks..

  How do resources such as cochrane empower clients

How do resources such as Cochrane empower clients/consumers to advocate for their best interest?

  Explain what is meant by good responses in communication

Explain the importance of asking open questions to understand a client/consumer. How are effective questions connected to reflective listening?

Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd