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Analysis of the sales data for the vintage restaurant
Course:- Basic Statistics
Reference No.:- EM131402692




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The Vintage Restaurant, on Captiva Island near Fort Myers, Florida, is owned and operated by Karen Payne. The restaurant just completed its third year of operation. During that time, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. Through the efforts of Karen and her staff, her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the island.

To better plan for future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. The following table shows the value of food and beverage sales ($1,000s) for the first three years of operation:

Month

Sales

1

296

2

289

3

286

4

232

5

238

6

194

7

199

8

206

9

164

10

184

11

206

12

260

13

317

14

292

15

301

16

247

17

247

18

203

19

211

20

215

21

176

22

184

23

221

24

284

25

336

26

309

27

319

28

259

29

264

30

214

31

220

32

228

33

180

34

202

35

227

36

289

Managerial Report

Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:

1.  A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series.

2.  Using the dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year.

How would you explain this model to Karen?

Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $295,000. What was your forecast error? If this error is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty about the forecasting procedure?




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