Marginal analysis, Financial Management

MARGINAL ANALYSIS

It is difficult to develop the conditional profit table when there are a large number of scenarios and possible actions. The marginal analysis approach sidesteps an unmanageable conditional profit table. We will illustrate the procedure and its advantages through the following example.

Example 

 

The fresh from the fields, vegetable and fruit wholesalers buys, produce and then sells to retailers. Currently, green peas are available. The wholesaler pays Rs.200 per box of peas. A box sold on the same day fetches Rs.300, otherwise it has a salvage value of Rs.50. Historical data has established the following demand for green peas.

Number of boxes

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

Probability

0.07

0.08

0.10

0.11

0.29

0.20

0.09

0.06

The wholesaler has decided to stock the optimal number of boxes based on the expected profit criterion.

Let us solve the problem using the conditional profit table. Note that the profit generated by the sale of one box is Rs.100 and the loss incurred on an unsold box is Rs.150.00.

Conditional Profit Table

Stocking level

Daily Demand

Expected profit

21
(0.07)

22
(0.08)

23
(0.10)

24
(0.11)

25
(0.29)

26
(0.20)

27
(0.09)

28
(0.06)

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

2100

1950

1800

1650

1500

1350

1200

1050

2100

2200

2050

1900

1750

1600

1450

1300

2100

2200

2300

2150

2000

1850

1700

1550

2100

2200

2300

2400

2250

2100

1950

1800

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2350

2200

2050

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2450

2300

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2550

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2100.00

2182.50

2245.00

2282.50

2292.50

2230.00

2117.50

1982.50

From the table, we see that the optimal stocking level is 25 (which generates the maximum expected profit of Rs.2,292.50).

As it can be seen, this approach is tedious and the conditional profit table is bound to become unmanageable.

 

Posted Date: 9/15/2012 2:26:48 AM | Location : United States







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