Find out revised probabilities for symptoms, Basic Statistics

This problem set consists of three problems and a short essay.  Each problem is worth 7 points, the essay is worth 4 points for a total of 25 points.

1.  What are the chances that tensions between a democratic (US) and autocratic (Iran) country will escalate to war?

Initial probabilities based on the historical record:

Wars between democracies and autocracies: .3

No wars between democracies and autocracies:  .7

A panel of experts suggested the following symptoms and probabilities:

                                          Support war                Against war     Revised probabilities

                                                    For war    Against war

1.   negotiation progress                .2                     .7                    

2.   military preparations               .7                     .2

3.    nuclear development              .6                     .3

4.   government reforms                .3                     .7

5.   support from allies                  .6                     .4

a)  What are the revised probabilities for each of these symptoms?

b)  What are the joint effects of negotiation progress and nuclear development on the chances of going to war? 

c)  What do you conclude from these analyses about the probability of war between these countries?

 

 

Posted Date: 3/13/2013 6:52:40 AM | Location : United States







Related Discussions:- Find out revised probabilities for symptoms, Assignment Help, Ask Question on Find out revised probabilities for symptoms, Get Answer, Expert's Help, Find out revised probabilities for symptoms Discussions

Write discussion on Find out revised probabilities for symptoms
Your posts are moderated
Related Questions
do you give the answers with the way you figured the problem out?..

Define best appraise To make and calculate of value of a resource, for example a good financial commitment or financial commitment resource, particularly of the value of property

Distinguish between primary and secondary data. What are the methods of collecting primary data?

The probability density function (pdf) of X is given by f(x) =   (1-x/2  if          0 ≤ x           (0                    otherwise a. Verify that that f(x) is a legitim


The study of radioactive disintegrations indicates the emission of alpha, beta and gamma particles/rays to be of nuclear origin. Further, study of artificial radioactivity has reve

To illustrate the importance of model selection. We will use only the first four observations to estimate the function f such that ini t. h = f(h. d) for two different models.

costing and control of overheads

Let f (?) be the production function associated with a single-output technology, and let Y be the production set. Show that Y satisfies constant returns to scale if and only if f (