Effect on unemployment, Macroeconomics

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From the lower left graph of Fig. it can be seen that there is a time lag associated with an oil price shock and its subsequent effect on unemployment. The results show that for the following year there is no real diversion from the trend and therefore in the short term, unemployment is not significantly effected by an oil price shock. However throughout the medium term and into the long term the unemployment rate is shown to be up to 0.5% higher as a result of the oil price shock. The trend does not stabilise throughout the five year period and therefore it can be drawn that from an oil price shock there is a significant lasting effect on the unemployment rate in the UK.

Finally from the top right graph from Fig. exchange rates seem to follow economic theory. Mankiw (2010) explains that a reduction in the net exports of an economy will result in a depreciation of that economy's exchange rate. Whilst the graph shows that the exchange rates are initially above the normal level following an oil price shock, towards the end of the short term, throughout the medium term and into the long term the real exchange rate has depreciated by two basis points and does not revert back to the original trend throughout the period.

In summary, oil price shocks do draw out great responses from three of the five macroeconomic indicators tested. GDP, inflation and interest rates were all proven to be Granger caused by oil prices indicating that there is a significant relationship between them. In this paper, the results are negative for UK economic performance. The Cholesky impulse response functions show long periods of economic recession and fluctuating levels of inflation for the following four to five years post oil shock. In addition to this, unemployment and exchange rates are also both negatively impacted by a shock in oil prices. Like interest rates, these impacts appear long lasting and do not revert back to their previous trend throughout the five year period. Therefore following a shock in oil prices this model shows that the overall economic performance of the UK will suffer greatly throughout the short and medium term, and will stabilise only in the long term although the economy may be left with a high level of long term unemployment.


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