Deseasonalizing a time series, Financial Management

Deseasonalizing a Time Series

The Ratio to Average Method allows us to identify the component of the seasonal variation in time series data and the indices themselves help us to nullify the effects of seasonality on the time series. The use of indices to nullify the seasonal effects in the common parlance is referred to as Deseasonalizing the time series. Deseasonalizing a time series involves dividing the original data points with the relevant seasonal index expressed as a percentage.

In our example, the deseasonalization process is carried out as follows.

Year

Quarter

Actual Data

Seasonal index/100

Deseasonalized data


(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5) = (3)/(4)


1998

I

1

112.73/100

0.887

 

II

2

  98.41/100

2.032

 

III

2

118.10/100

1.693

 

IV

1

 70.77/100

1.413

The removal of the seasonal component helps us to analyze the components of secular, cyclical and irregular variations. The secular trend then obtained can be utilized for projecting the trend into the future.

Posted Date: 9/17/2012 3:43:27 AM | Location : United States







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