Compute the mean absolute deviation and mean square error, Basic Statistics

Assignment Help:

Toyota Motors introduced a hybrid car Hybrid G in the U.S. market in 2006. In the first three years, the sales of Hybrid G were strong due to the buzz surrounding the hybrid car concept and also lack of competition. Sales of Toyota's Hybrid G started declining in 2009 following the introduction of a new hybrid model by Honda. Toyota is in critical need of a better forecasting method. They need your help to evaluate alternative forecasting methods and provide suggestions. The following table contains the past 12 months' sales data (Note: Month 1 refers to sales made 12 months ago, month 12 refers to sales made last month.)

a. Use a 3-month simple moving average to forecast sales for months 4 to 13. Compute the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and the Mean Square Error (MSE) of the forecasts for months 4 to 12.

b. Using a 3-month weighted average method with weights of 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 (most recent, next most recent, and third most recent month, respectively) for months 4 to 13. Again, compute the MAD and MSE of the forecasts for months 4 to 12 with the weighted moving average method.

c. Using exponential smoothing method, compute two sets of forecasts for the sales of Hybrid G for months 2 to 13, corresponding to α values of 0.2 and 0.5. Assume that the forecast for month 1 is 1376.

d. Continue part c. Compute the MAD and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) using the forecast errors from months 2-12 for each of these two sets of forecasts. Which α value produces a more accurate forecast?

e. Use the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing method to forecast sales for months 2 to 13, assuming S1=1376 and T1=-25 and set α=0.8 and β=0.2.

f. Develop a simple linear regression model using month as the independent variable to forecast the sales of Hybrid G for month 13.


Related Discussions:- Compute the mean absolute deviation and mean square error

Homework, I will need to upload the question sheets.

I will need to upload the question sheets.

Bonds payable, Bonds payable The face worth of bonds issued and honorary. ...

Bonds payable The face worth of bonds issued and honorary. In the case of zero-coupon bonds, however, and the only and the accreted value of the tie is reported as bonds owed on t

#title.research.methods and statistics, identify a research report publishe...

identify a research report published by reputable agencies and evaluate the following ;the problem that was addressed

Define mortality, Define Mortality: The following rates are used for measur...

Define Mortality: The following rates are used for measuring mortality. Crude death rate The annual crude death rate is defined as  Crude death rate = annual deaths / annual

CALCULATIONS, CALCULATIONS OF MEAN USING PHSTAT

CALCULATIONS OF MEAN USING PHSTAT

Costing for labour, ways or techniques for labour control policy

ways or techniques for labour control policy

Hypothesis testing, The caffeine is expected to lower reaction time by an a...

The caffeine is expected to lower reaction time by an average of 30 msec. Scores on the simulator task for the regular population (without caffeine) form a normal distribution with

Index numbers, discuss the considerations to be borne in mind when construc...

discuss the considerations to be borne in mind when constructing index numbers

Calculate and interpret, U.S. College presidents have described alcohol abu...

U.S. College presidents have described alcohol abuse as the number one problem on campus.  How common is it?  As a super crackerjack student, you conducted a survey of 17,096 stude

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd