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SmartLock is a startup that manufactures lockers for parcel delivery. Based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the company has experienced a constant increase of its sales in 2017. It is time now to plan its production for the first quarter of 2018. To do so, the demand planner has collected historical sales information for the last 12 months. Year Month Sales (units) 2017 Jan 100 2017 Feb 112 2017 Mar 134 2017 Apr 144 2017 May 154 2017 Jun 167 2017 Jul 166 2017 Aug 177 2017 Sep 183 2017 Oct 199 2017 Nov 207 2017 Dec 220 SmartLock has been using the level and trend exponential smoothing model to forecast future sales. The demand planner has computed the initial values of the estimates of the level ( = 97.83) and trend ( = 10.12) in the end of 2016. He also uses alpha = 0.2 and beta = 0.1 to update these estimates on a monthly basis. (The following question is included for your benefit, and is not graded.) What will be the estimates of the level (a) and trend (b) components in January of 2017? Round your answers to 2 decimal places. : 106.4 correct : 10.0 correcT
What will be the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)? Include all 2017-year sales forecasts in your calculation.
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