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Problem: What probability doesn't say. The idea of probability is that the proportion of heads in many tosses of a balanced coin eventually gets close to 0.5. But does the actual count of heads get close to one-half the number of tosses? Let's find out. Set the "Probability of heads" in the Probability applet to 0.5 and the number of tosses to 40. You can extend the number of tosses by clicking "Toss" again to get 40 more. Don't click "Reset" during this exercise.
Requirement:
(i) After 40 tosses, what is the proportion of heads? What is the count of heads? What is the difference between the count of heads and 20 (one-half the number of tosses)?
(ii) Keep going to 120 tosses. Again record the proportion and count of heads and the difference between the count and 60 (half the number of tosses).
(iii) Keep going. Stop at 240 tosses and again at 480 tosses to record the same facts. Although it may take a long time, the laws of probability say that the proportion of heads will always get close to 0.5 and also that the difference between the count of heads and half the number of tosses will always grow without limit.
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