Reference no: EM131008524
Question 1 - Determine the error for each of the following forecasts. Then, calculate MAD and MSE.
Period Value Forecast Error
1 202 - -
2 191 202
3 173 192
4 169 181
5 171 174
6 175 172
7 182 174
8 196 179
9 204 189
10 219 198
11 227 211
Question 2 - The U.S. Census Bureau publishes data on factory orders for all manufacturing, durable goods, and nondurable goods industries. Shown here are factory orders in the United States over a 13-year period ($ billion). First, use the data to develop forecasts for years 6 through 13 using a 5-year moving average.
Then, use the data to develop forecasts for years 6 through 13 using a 5-year weighted moving average. Weight the most recent year by 6, the previous year by 4, the year before that by 2, and the other years by 1.
Answer the following questions:
a) What is the forecast for year 13 based on the 5-year moving average?
b) What is the forecast for year 13 based on the 5-year weighted moving average?
c) What is the MAD for the moving average forecast?
d) What is the MAD for the weighted moving average forecast?
e) Which forecasting model is better?
Year Factory
Orders
1 2,512.70
2 2,739.20
3 2,874.90
4 2,934.10
5 2,865.70
6 2,978.50
7 3,092.40
8 3,111.10
9 3,222.20
10 3,341.00
11 3,689.00
12 3,654.00
13
Question 3 - The "Economic Report to the President of the United States" included data on the amounts of manufacturers' new and unfilled orders in millions of dollars. Shown here are the figures for new orders over a 21-year period.
Use the charting tool in Excel to develop a regression model to fit the trend effects for the data. Use a linear model and then try a polynomial (order 2) model. Make sure the charts show the line formula and the r-squared value. Include both charts in your report. Then, answer the following question:
?How well does either model fit the data? Which model should be used for forecasting? Explain using the relevant metrics.
Year Total Number of New Orders
1 55,022
2 55,921
3 64,182
4 76,003
5 87,327
6 85,139
7 99,513
8 115,109
9 116,251
10 121,547
11 123,321
12 141,200
13 162,140
14 168,420
15 171,250
16 176,355
17 195,204
18 209,389
19 237,025
20 272,544
21 293,475
Prepare any journal entry necessary as a direct result
: Determine the amounts to be reported for each of the five items shown above from the 2009 and 2010 financial statements when those amounts are reported again in the 2009-2011 comparative financial statements.
|
Was the community experience better or worse than expected
: Newgroveton is a community of 445,000. In the most recent year, there were 750 new cases of disease A in the community. Assume the expected incidence rate for disease A is 245 per 100,000 people. Was the community's experience better or worse than..
|
Define zero order markov model for sequence
: Page review for the paper "Genome-wide genetic marker discovery and genotyping using next-generation sequencing" available under week's course content
|
The energy stored in the dielectric in joules
: A dielectric slab with 500mm x 500mm cross-section is 0.4m long. The slab is subjected to a uniform electric field of E = 6ax + 8aykV /mm . The relative permittivity of the dielectric material is equal to 2. The value of constant ε0 is8.85 × 10-12F /..
|
What is the mad for the moving average forecast
: What is the forecast for year 13 based on the 5-year moving average? What is the forecast for year 13 based on the 5-year weighted moving average? What is the MAD for the moving average forecast
|
Summarize this information using a comparative bar graph
: Summarize this information using a comparative bar graph that shows differences between males and females within the two different age groups. Comment on the interesting features of your graphical display.
|
The effective capacitance across the terminals
: Three capacitors C1, C2, and C3 whose values are 10µF, 5µF and 2µF respectively, have breakdown voltages of 10V, 5V and 2V respectively. For the interconnection shown, the maximum safe voltage in Volts that can be applied across the combination and t..
|
The company conducted a thorough internal audit
: The company conducted a thorough internal audit, during which the following facts were discovered. The audit occurred during 2011 before any adjusting entries or closing entries are prepared.
|
Recognize the company product
: Radio ads. A company is willing to renew its advertising contract with a local radio station only if the station can prove that more than 20% of the residents of the city have heard the ad and recognize the company's product. The radio station con..
|