Reference no: EM132369564
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Assignment -
1. Below are the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used.
Year
|
Quarter
|
Time Series Value Y1
|
1
|
1
|
36
|
2
|
24
|
3
|
16
|
2
|
4
|
20
|
1
|
44
|
An estimate of the seasonal-irregular component for quarter 3 of year 1 is_______.
2. Nodes indicating points where an uncertain even will occur are know as_______nodes.
a. A chance
b. Marginal
c. Decision
d. Conditional
3. Below are some values of a time series consisting of 26 time periods.
Time Period
|
Time Series Value
|
1
|
37
|
2
|
48
|
3
|
50
|
4
|
63
|
.
|
.
|
.
|
.
|
.
|
.
|
23
|
105
|
24
|
107
|
25
|
112
|
26
|
114
|
The estimated regression equation for these data is Yt =16.23+.52Y t-1 + .37Y t-2
The forecasted value for time period 27 is____.
a. 116.95
b. 116.65
c. 109.5
d. 53.23
4. Below is a payoff table involving two states of nature and three decision alternatives.
Decision Alternative
|
States of Nature
|
s1
|
s2
|
A
|
5
|
8
|
B
|
10
|
12
|
C
|
20
|
6
|
The probability of occurrence of s1 = .2.
The expected value of the best alternative is ____.
a. 9.9
b. 8.8
c. 22
d. None of these answers are correct.
5. Below are first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used.
Year
|
Quarter
|
Time Series Value Yt
|
1
|
1
|
36
|
2
|
24
|
3
|
16
|
2
|
4
|
20
|
1
|
44
|
An estimate of the trend component times the cyclical component (T2ct) for quarter 3 of year 1, when a four-quarter moving average is used, is___.
a. 25
b. 26
c. 28
d. 24
6. Below is a payoff table involving two states of nature and three decision alternatives.
Decision Alternative
|
States of Nature
|
s1
|
s2
|
s3
|
A
|
-20
|
10
|
15
|
B
|
16
|
-5
|
8
|
C
|
15
|
25
|
-10
|
The probability of occurrence of s1 is .2, and the probability of s2 is .3. The expected value of perfect information is____.
7. Below are the first two values of a time series and the first tow values of the exponential smoothing forecast.
Time Period (t)
|
Time series value (Yt)
|
Exponential Smoothing Forecast (Ft)
|
1
|
18
|
18
|
2
|
22
|
18
|
If the smoothing constant equals .3, then the exponential smoothing forecast for time period 3 is_____.
a. 18
b. 40
c. 20
d. 19.2
8. State Division of Motor Vehicles (DMV) statistics show the rate of new driver's license applications to be as show below.
Month
|
Week1
|
Application
|
April
|
1
|
238
|
2
|
199
|
3
|
215
|
4
|
212
|
May
|
1
|
207
|
2
|
211
|
3
|
196
|
4
|
206
|
Using weights of .4, .3, .2, and .1, what is the four-week weighted moving average forecast for April, week 1?
a. 210.8
b. 206.4
c. 204.1
d. 208.4
9. In the linear trend equation, T = b0 + b1t, b0 represents the ___.
a. Y-intercept
b. Slope of the trend line
c. Time
d. Trend value in period 1
10. The model that assumes that the actual time series value is the product of its components is the ___.
a. Linear trend regression model
b. Additive time series model
c. Multiplicative decomposition model
d. Weighted moving average model
11. The time series pattern that reflects a gradual shift or movement to a relatively higher or lower level over a longer time period is called the ____.
a. Seasonal pattern
b. Cyclical pattern
c. Trend and seasonal pattern
d. Trend pattern
12. Below is a payoff table involving three states of nature and three decision alternatives.
Decision Alternative
|
States of Nature
|
s1
|
s2
|
s3
|
A
|
-20
|
10
|
15
|
B
|
16
|
-5
|
8
|
C
|
15
|
25
|
-10
|
The probability of occurrence of s1 is .2, and the probability of occurrence of s2 is .3. The expected value of the best alternative is ______.
a. 9.0
b. 5.0
c. 6.5
d. 7.5
Note - Need the answers to and the solution on how the problems were worked.