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What is the four-week weighted moving average forecast
Course:- Applied Statistics
Length: 4
Reference No.:- EM132369564




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Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Assignment -

1. Below are the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used.

Year

Quarter

Time Series Value Y1

1

1

36

2

24

3

16

2

4

20

1

44

An estimate of the seasonal-irregular component for quarter 3 of year 1 is_______.

2. Nodes indicating points where an uncertain even will occur are know as_______nodes.

a. A chance

b. Marginal

c. Decision

d. Conditional

3. Below are some values of a time series consisting of 26 time periods.

Time Period

Time Series Value

1

37

2

48

3

50

4

63

.

.

.

.

.

.

23

105

24

107

25

112

26

114

The estimated regression equation for these data is Yt =16.23+.52Y t-1 + .37Y t-2

The forecasted value for time period 27 is____.

a. 116.95

b. 116.65

c. 109.5

d. 53.23

4. Below is a payoff table involving two states of nature and three decision alternatives.

Decision Alternative

States of Nature

s1

s2

A

5

8

B

10

12

C

20

6

The probability of occurrence of s1 = .2.

The expected value of the best alternative is ____.

a. 9.9

b. 8.8

c. 22

d. None of these answers are correct.

5. Below are first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used.

Year

Quarter

Time Series Value Yt

1

1

36

2

24

3

16

2

4

20

1

44

An estimate of the trend component times the cyclical component (T2ct) for quarter 3 of year 1, when a four-quarter moving average is used, is___.

a. 25

b. 26

c. 28

d. 24

6. Below is a payoff table involving two states of nature and three decision alternatives.

Decision Alternative

States of Nature

s1

s2

s3

A

-20

10

15

B

16

-5

8

C

15

25

-10

The probability of occurrence of s1 is .2, and the probability of s2 is .3. The expected value of perfect information is____.

7. Below are the first two values of a time series and the first tow values of the exponential smoothing forecast.

Time Period (t)

Time series value (Yt)

Exponential Smoothing Forecast (Ft)

1

18

18

2

22

18

If the smoothing constant equals .3, then the exponential smoothing forecast for time period 3 is_____.

a. 18

b. 40

c. 20

d. 19.2

8. State Division of Motor Vehicles (DMV) statistics show the rate of new driver's license applications to be as show below.

Month

Week1

Application

April

1

238

2

199

3

215

4

212

May

1

207

2

211

3

196

4

206

Using weights of .4, .3, .2, and .1, what is the four-week weighted moving average forecast for April, week 1?

a. 210.8

b. 206.4

c. 204.1

d. 208.4

9. In the linear trend equation, T = b0 + b1t, b0 represents the ___.

a. Y-intercept

b. Slope of the trend line

c. Time

d. Trend value in period 1

10. The model that assumes that the actual time series value is the product of its components is the ___.

a. Linear trend regression model

b. Additive time series model

c. Multiplicative decomposition model

d. Weighted moving average model

11. The time series pattern that reflects a gradual shift or movement to a relatively higher or lower level over a longer time period is called the ____.

a. Seasonal pattern

b. Cyclical pattern

c. Trend and seasonal pattern

d. Trend pattern

12. Below is a payoff table involving three states of nature and three decision alternatives.

Decision Alternative

States of Nature

s1

s2

s3

A

-20

10

15

B

16

-5

8

C

15

25

-10

The probability of occurrence of s1 is .2, and the probability of occurrence of s2 is .3. The expected value of the best alternative is ______.

a. 9.0

b. 5.0

c. 6.5

d. 7.5

Note - Need the answers to and the solution on how the problems were worked.




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