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Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Assignment 
1. Below are the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a fourquarter moving average will be used.
Year

Quarter

Time Series Value Y1

1

1

36

2

24

3

16

2

4

20

1

44

An estimate of the seasonalirregular component for quarter 3 of year 1 is_______.
2. Nodes indicating points where an uncertain even will occur are know as_______nodes.
a. A chance
b. Marginal
c. Decision
d. Conditional
3. Below are some values of a time series consisting of 26 time periods.
Time Period

Time Series Value

1

37

2

48

3

50

4

63

.

.

.

.

.

.

23

105

24

107

25

112

26

114

The estimated regression equation for these data is Yt =16.23+.52Y t1 + .37Y t2
The forecasted value for time period 27 is____.
a. 116.95
b. 116.65
c. 109.5
d. 53.23
4. Below is a payoff table involving two states of nature and three decision alternatives.
Decision Alternative

States of Nature

s1

s2

A

5

8

B

10

12

C

20

6

The probability of occurrence of s1 = .2.
The expected value of the best alternative is ____.
a. 9.9
b. 8.8
c. 22
d. None of these answers are correct.
5. Below are first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a fourquarter moving average will be used.
Year

Quarter

Time Series Value Yt

1

1

36

2

24

3

16

2

4

20

1

44

An estimate of the trend component times the cyclical component (T2ct) for quarter 3 of year 1, when a fourquarter moving average is used, is___.
a. 25
b. 26
c. 28
d. 24
6. Below is a payoff table involving two states of nature and three decision alternatives.
Decision Alternative

States of Nature

s1

s2

s3

A

20

10

15

B

16

5

8

C

15

25

10

The probability of occurrence of s1 is .2, and the probability of s2 is .3. The expected value of perfect information is____.
7. Below are the first two values of a time series and the first tow values of the exponential smoothing forecast.
Time Period (t)

Time series value (Yt)

Exponential Smoothing Forecast (Ft)

1

18

18

2

22

18

If the smoothing constant equals .3, then the exponential smoothing forecast for time period 3 is_____.
a. 18
b. 40
c. 20
d. 19.2
8. State Division of Motor Vehicles (DMV) statistics show the rate of new driver's license applications to be as show below.
Month

Week1

Application

April

1

238

2

199

3

215

4

212

May

1

207

2

211

3

196

4

206

Using weights of .4, .3, .2, and .1, what is the fourweek weighted moving average forecast for April, week 1?
a. 210.8
b. 206.4
c. 204.1
d. 208.4
9. In the linear trend equation, T = b0 + b1t, b0 represents the ___.
a. Yintercept
b. Slope of the trend line
c. Time
d. Trend value in period 1
10. The model that assumes that the actual time series value is the product of its components is the ___.
a. Linear trend regression model
b. Additive time series model
c. Multiplicative decomposition model
d. Weighted moving average model
11. The time series pattern that reflects a gradual shift or movement to a relatively higher or lower level over a longer time period is called the ____.
a. Seasonal pattern
b. Cyclical pattern
c. Trend and seasonal pattern
d. Trend pattern
12. Below is a payoff table involving three states of nature and three decision alternatives.
Decision Alternative

States of Nature

s1

s2

s3

A

20

10

15

B

16

5

8

C

15

25

10

The probability of occurrence of s1 is .2, and the probability of occurrence of s2 is .3. The expected value of the best alternative is ______.
a. 9.0
b. 5.0
c. 6.5
d. 7.5
Note  Need the answers to and the solution on how the problems were worked.