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Embassy Publishing Company received a six-chapter manuscript for a new college textbook. The editor of the college division is familiar with the manuscript and estimated a 0.65 probability that the textbook will be successful. If successful, a profit of $750,000 will be realized. If the company decides to publish the textbook and it is unsuccessful, a loss of $250,000 will occur.Before making the decision to accept or reject the manuscript, the editor is considering sending the manuscript out for review. A review process provided either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) evaluation of the manuscript. Past experience with the review process suggests probabilities P(F) = 0.7 and P(U) = 0.3 apply. Let s1 = the textbook is successful, and s2 = the textbook is unsuccessful. The editor's initial probabilities of s1 and s2 will be revised based on whether the review is favorable or unfavorable. The revised probabilities are as follows:
a. Construct a decision tree or complete payoff table assuming that the company will first make the decision of whether to send the manuscript out for review and then make the decision to accept or reject the manuscript.
b. Use the expected value approach to recommend a decision strategy for the publishing company.
c. If the manuscript review costs $5000, what is your recommendation?
d. Determine the expected value of perfect information for this decision problem. What does this EVPI suggest for the company?
You are estimating the cost ($K) of optical sensors based on the power output of the sensor. Using the preliminary calculations from a data set of 8 sensors, determine the equation of the line.
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What additional strategies (up to 3) you would propose that may increase validity of the findings.
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Standard deviation of 0.17 ounces, assuming the weight of cereal is normally distributed, determine the likelihood that a package will contain more than 12.2 ounces?
Correlation and Simple Regression
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A club has 8 members.How many di?erent committees of 3 members each can be formed from the club?
Prepare a report with your rankings of the judges. Also include an analysis of the likelihood of appeal and case reversal in the three courts. At a minimum, your report should include the probability of cases being appealed and reversed in the thre..
Determine the average number of parts waiting to be worked on, the percentage of time the operator is working, and the percentage of time the machine is idle.
Assuming for a moment that 35% of all Ralph's customers have a discount card, what is the probability of getting a sample proportion at least this big?
Such tv are randomly selected and checked to determine what is being watch. Would it be unusual to find that 954 of the 2500 tvs are tuned to eyewitness news?
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