Reference no: EM131233541

Forecasting is defined as to take decision for future on the basis of current and past conditions. To take important organizational decisions, we need to analyze the available information and data. Taking decision without analyzing the data and information can create a big problem for management. So we use the forecasting techniques to take a right decision for future. We have various kinds of forecasting techniques but generally the forecasting techniques are divided into two parts. First is qualitative forecasting and second one is quantitative forecasting. Qualitative method is used where just need to analyze various factors. There is no calculation is qualitative analysis. Some famous qualitative methods are Delphi methods and market research, historic analogy and panel consequences methods. In Delphi method we have a panel of experts and organization ask possible questions regarding to take future decision and on the basis of their experience all the panel member give answer of every asked question. This review of experts helps management to take decision. Similarly in historical analogy we collect the past data of market for study and analysis so that we can take right decision on the basis of similar past conditions. In these methods we just need to collect the data and after the analysis of data, it makes able to take right decision by top management. In quantitative methods, we need to do calculation because we have data in from of quantity. Bur there is are some disadvantages of qualitative methods. The main disadvantage is that, qualitative methods can use to take short term decisions because the decisions are not based on the condition of market. They are based on calculative data. So quantitative methods are used to take immediate decisions. Famous quantitative forecasting techniques are seasonal adjustment, graphical methods etc. For example in seasonal method we consider the variation of demand from season to season with using a baseline forecast to predict the impact of seasonal demand. In graphical method we plot the information in graphical form and covey the information in visual manner so it is a time taking process. As we discussed both kind of forecasting techniques (Quantitative and qualitative) for accurate prediction but it is true that no one method can give the guarantee of accuracy because all kind of forecasting are depend of past and present data. Some need mathematical calculation and come need deep analysis. But according to me Delphi technique is better for forecasting because this technique is used to take long term decision and decisions are based on deep analysis of data by the industry experts and as we earlier discussed qualitative techniques are used to take instant decision and based on calculation with considering the past and previous market conditions. The other advantage of Delphi technique is that we can apply it on any condition and any kind of industry. For example if the soft drink price become very low in the market by the famous companies and launching very interesting flavors in soft drink with affordable price then with using Delphi experts can predict that the sales of soft drink will continuously increase in some next coming years and on basis of that result a company can prepare himself to increase the production of soft drink on large basis.