Determine best degree program in terms of projected income

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Reference no: EM13109480

The director of career advising at Orange Community College wants to use decision analysis to provide information to help students decide which 2-year degree program they should pursue. The director has set up the following payoff table for six of the most popular and successful degree programs at OCC that shows the estimated 5-year gross income ($) from each degree for four future economic conditions:

Degree Program

Economic Conditions

Recession

Average

Good

Robust

Graphic Design

145,000

175,000

220,000

260,000

Nursing

150,000

180,000

205,000

215,000

Real Estate

115,000

165,000

220,000

320,000

Medical Tech

130,000

180,000

210,000

280,000

Culinary Tech

115,000

145,000

235,000

305,000

Computer IT

125,000

150,000

190,000

250,000

Probability

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.1

Determine the best degree program in terms of projected income, using the following decision criteria:

a.       Maximax

b.      Maximin

c.       Equal likelihood

d.      Hurwicz (alpha = .6)

e.      Minimax regret

f.        EOL (expected opportunity loss)

g.       The director of career advising at Orange Community College has paid a small fee to a local investment firm to indicate a probability for each future economic condition over the next 5 years, which is shown in the last row of the above table. Using expected value determine the best degree program in terms of projected income.

h.      Determine the EVPI of this problem.

Reference no: EM13109480

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