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A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.
Options:
Facility
Demand Options
Probability
Actions
Expected Payoffs
Large
Low Demand
0.4
Do Nothing
($10)
Reduce Prices
$50
High Demand
0.6
$70
Small
$40
Overtime
Expand
$55
Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:
Build Small:
0.4($40)=$16
0.6($55)=$33
Build Large:
0.4($50)=$20
0.6($70)=$42
Determination of Expected Value of each alternative
Build Small: $16+$33=$49
Build Large: $20+$42=$62
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