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Emergency calls to Winter Park, Florida’s 911 system, for the past 24 weeks are as follows: Week Number of Calls (100s) 1 50 2 35 3 25 4 40 5 45 6 35 7 20 8 30 9 36 10 20 11 15 12 40 13 55 14 35 15 25 16 55 17 55 18 40 19 35 20 60 21 75 22 50 23 40 24 65 a.Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week and use α=0.1. What is the forecast for the 25th week? b.Reforecast each period using α=0.6. c.Actual calls during the 25th week were 85. Which smoothing constant provides a superior forecast? d.Reforecast each period using a 3-period moving average. e.Which forecast, of the three that you have calculated, would you recommend, given the data? why f.How would the forecast for week 25 change if the initial forecast was 40 instead of 50? How would the forecast for week 25 change if the forecast for week 1 were assumed to be 60? ( use α=0.1 )
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