Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year

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Reference no: EM13521506

1. PROBLEM Facts Known:  The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three years  are as follows:

Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

      1  1690  1800  1850

      2    940    900  1100

      3  2625  2900  2930

      4  2500  2360  2615

b.)  Use a regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data.  Qtr1 = 1 if Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if Quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if Quarter 3, 0 otherwise.

c.) Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year.

d.) Let t = 1 to refer to the observation in quarter 1 of year 1; t = 2 to refer to the observation in quarter 2 of year 1, … ; and t = 12 to refer to the observation in quarter 4 of year 3.  Using dummy variables defined in part (b) and also using t, develop an equation to account for seasonal effects ad any linear trend in the time series.  Based upon the seasonal effects in the data and linear trend, compute the quarterly forecasts for next year.

Reference no: EM13521506

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