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For the market share model in Problem 5 Chapter 11, suppose that the estimate of the percentage of new purchasers who will ultimately try the brand is uncertain and assumed to be normally distributed with a mean of 35% and a standard deviation of 4%. Use the NORM.INV function and a one way data table to conduct a Monte Carlo simulation with 25 trials to find the distribution of the long run market share.
A company is trying to predict the long-run market share of a new men's deodorant. Based on initial marketing studies, they believe that 35% of new purchasers in the market will ultimately try this brand. They believe that customers will purchase their brand about 40% of the time in the future. Preliminary data also suggest that the brand will attract heavier-than-average buyers, such as those who exercise frequently and participate in sports, and that they will purchase about 15% more than the average buyer.
a. Calculate the long-run market share that the company can anticipate under these assumptions.
b. Develop a general model for predicting long-run market share.
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