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A famous British expedition aimed at crossing Antarctica, led by Ernest Shack- leton from 1914 to 1916, was derailed by unexpected ice floes. Although this act of nature presented an initial risk, Shackleton and his crew were able to later take advantage of ice floe movements to escape from a prolonged and cold entrapment that, remarkably, did not take any of their lives. Imagine yourself as Shackleton, and that you are developing an uncertainty assessment before you set sail. If you need more information about the Shackleton expedition, consult the sources cited in footnote 35 or conduct an Internet search. Identify three major project deliverables, and for each one identify one potential negative risk and one potential favorable uncertainty. Assess the likelihoods, outcomes, impacts on the project, and underlying causal factors. Discuss your analysis, use diagrams where appropriate, and demonstrate critical thinking.
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