Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)


In CPM, the time values are assumed to be fixed and easily identifiable. But for projects where time values are affected by chance variations, a more probabilistic approach is taken. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is used for planning, and scheduling projects so that all activities are completed in the shortest possible time. The technique was developed in 1958 by the US Navy for the planning and controlling of the Polaris nuclear submarine project. PERT is also a graphical representation of project activities. The PERT network always begins and ends with a single node and there is at least one continuous path between first and last node. To avoid the possibility of two activities leaving a node and later re-entering the same node, dummy activities are introduced into the network. The iteration process for drawing up a PERT schedule is shown in Figure.
Given below are the conditions that must be satisfied for the application of the PERT method:

•     Activities should have identifiable start and finish time.
•     The project should not have too many interrelated or overlapping activities.
•     The activities should be clearly distinguishable from each other.
•     The project should be flexible enough to accommodate different sequences and timings.

The various steps involved in the process of scheduling a project using PERT are as follows:

1.     Identify the list of activities that are involved in the project. Then, identify the sequence of the activities, based on the priorities and constraints. For example, in a new product development project, test marketing can be conducted only after a prototype has been tested and flaws are identified and removed. Once the tasks and sequences are identified, a precedence table is drawn which tabulates preceding activities for each activity.
2.     Once the sequence of activities is identified, their expected times and respective variances are calculated using the following formulas:

Expected Activity Time =  
Activity Time Variances = 

    Where t₀ = Optimistic time estimate,
             t_p = Pessimistic time estimate, and
            t_m = Most probable time estimate
    3. Develop the PERT network by using the data obtained through step 1 i.e. using expected time.
    4. Determine the earliest start times and the earliest finish times for each of the activities in the PERT network.
    5. Determine the latest start times and latest finish times for each of the activities in the network.

      6. Determine the slack activity times and identify the critical path activities. The slack time for an activity is the time by which that activity can be delayed without delaying the total project, and is the difference of either the latest start time and earliest start time, or the latest finish time and the earliest finish time.
      7. Determine the probability of completing the project within the desired completion period (Z). This step is optional and makes use of the following formula:

Z = (Desired project period - Expected project period) / (Standard deviation of the critical path activities)                           

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